Analytics Reveal Bo Nix's Heavy Reliance on Courtland Sutton Under Pressure

Last year, the Denver Broncos had a lot of success when Bo Nix targeted Courtland Sutton in the passing game. However, it has raised some concerns, as the Broncos lacked another reliable receiving weapon for Nix to turn to.

This often led to some forced throws to Sutton, the culprit in a few of Nix's 12 interceptions. While it was evident that Sutton was a security blanket for Nix, we now have additional evidence to support that being the case. 

Pro Football Focus' Lauren Gray examined the NFL receivers with the highest target rates when the quarterback was under pressure, also known as 'safety blankets.' Of these receivers, Sutton came in fourth behind Zay Flowers (third), Ladd McConkey (second), and Drake London (first). PFF based its ranking on threat rate, which is a "target rate calculated based on the number of routes run." 

“Bo Nix targeted Sutton 34 times when he was pressured as a rookie, and Sutton caught 19 of those passes for 289 yards and 13 first downs. He secured four of eight contested targets, tallied nine gains of 15-plus yards (tied for ninth most) and recorded a seventh-ranked 81.0 PFF receiving grade on such plays," Gray wrote. "Sutton ranks sixth in PFF receiving grade on targets when his quarterback was pressured over the past three seasons (83.8). That mark is fueled by 55 catches for 851 yards, six touchdowns, 42 first downs and 27 explosive gains.”

When Nix was under pressure and looked for Sutton, he had success, but it doesn’t get into the issues that also arose with it. Nix had the 15th-most drop-backs under pressure and threw five interceptions to six touchdowns, and added six more turnover-worthy plays. Most of those interceptions came from forcing the ball to Sutton, as opposing defenses quickly discovered that Nix would be quick to look at his No. 1 receiver when the chips were down. 

That leads to concerns for this year. The success that Nix had when targeting Sutton when under pressure was great, but the Broncos need to be able to cut back on the bad outcomes. To do that, the team needs to reduce the predictability of Nix looking at Sutton. But how?

Well, the Broncos made some roster moves to help with that. The most significant way to help overcome that issue was to add another viable target when pressure is getting to the quarterback.

That's why Evan Engram was such an essential addition to the offense. The Broncos have plenty of potential for someone to step up to be that guy in their receiver room, but they needed the known quantity. Engram is that guy and has shown the ability to present himself as a target when things get messy for the quarterback. 

Sutton is a good receiver and an acceptable option as the No. 1, but the Broncos can’t have him as the lone safety blanket for Nix. It led to issues last year and would lead to problems again.

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