Analyzing the Hit Rate of Defensive Tackles in the Chicago Bears’ Draft Window

The NFL Draft is a crap shoot. Even when targeting "safer" prospects, there's no guarantee how a player will perform when they make the jump to the NFL. It's such a massive increase in competition, and that often contributes to players failing to replicate their success at the collegiate level.

Teams picking at the end of the first round are often in an especially volatile situation. For the first time in a long time (this is the first year where they'll be picking outside the top 20 selections since 2011), the Bears are in that position. With a few glaring weaknesses remaining, they need to make sure they don't miss if they want a chance to compete for a Super Bowl in 2026.

While general manager Ryan Poles said they intend to draft the best player on the board (which is something every GM says), I personally think only five positions would be in play for Chicago in the first round. I'd be shocked if they don't target a defensive tackle, safety, defensive end, offensive tackle, or cornerback in the first round.

I thought it would be a fun exercise to review how those positions have performed over the years. While every draft is different, they generally follow a similar pattern, with the highest ceiling prospects and those playing premier positions pushed to the top of the class.

I decided to analyze draft classes since 2010 (an arbitrary period, but I think 15 classes would create an adequate sample size), and categorize players into four groups: Hits, mega hits, misses, and average players. Since the Bears are picking 25th, I also wanted to specifically focus on the players selected between picks 20 and 32. That range will feature similar prospects to the ones Chicago will be choosing from next month.

I'm first going to analyze the defensive tackle position. How have the big men fared since 2010?

There have been 18 defensive tackles drafted between picks 20 and 32 over the previous 15 years. They have largely produced a mixed bag of results, with eight misses, four hits, four average players, and two mega hits (which could become four depending on how 2025 first-round selections Derrick Harmon and Tyleik Williams develop).

That hit rate is definitely in line with the expectations of players selected towards the tail end of the first round. Much like the players Chicago will be choosing from if they prioritize the defensive tackle position, the entire group had flaws as prospects. They were each far from a sure thing.

I found it interesting that the draft results became far more volatile over the past decade. Three out of four of the average players (which predominantly feature run stuffers who started a lot of games but never developed into game changers) were drafted before 2014. I think that points to teams occasionally being swayed by a player's ceiling as a pass-rusher.

Five out of the eight misses (Floyd, Tillery, Nkemdiche, Butler, and Robinson) were lauded for their pass-rushing chops coming out of college. They each failed to reach double-digit sacks in the pros and never made much of an impact against the run, either.

Notably, the only two misses before 2014 also would've been average (or potentially even hits) had injuries not taken a serious toll on their respective careers. They both only lasted four years in the league after showing early promise.

It's also worth noting that mega hits were the rarest outcome, with Muhammad Wilkerson and Kenny Clark being the only real elite players. That's really not all that surprising, though. As I mentioned above, they all had their flaws as prospects. I'm really interested to see how the other positions hold up as I take a deeper look into this exercise.

What could this mean for the Bears if they draft a DT in the first round?

Honestly, I think it depends on which defensive tackle they would select. I think the top guys have pretty obvious ceilings and floors. Four defensive tackles could conceivably come into play for Chicago at pick 25: Peter Woods, Kayden McDonald, Caleb Banks, and Lee Hunter.

I ultimately don't think they'd go with Banks unless they traded down from pick 25, as he could tumble down the boards after breaking his foot at the NFL Scouting Combine. However, if they were to go that route, then they'd clearly be banking (no pun intended) on his potential. He has the highest ceiling of the group. He also has the highest floor. He feels like a clear boom or bust prospect, and I don't think he'll be 'average'.

Peter Woods would also be a swing for the fences. He's one of the best interior pass-rushers in this year's draft. Unfortunately, he also has a low floor, which is contributing to him being one of the most polarizing players in the class.

Kayden McDonald and Lee Hunter both feel like safer picks when it comes to their floor. While they could certainly wind up being misses (because truly anyone can), it would be surprising if they weren't rock-solid run defenders in the league. They feel like safe bets to be at least average, although they have longer odds of becoming mega hits.

Personally, I'd be surprised if the Bears drafted anyone other than McDonald or Woods if they stick and pick at 25. They're really the only two guys who I think would be worth a shot there (although I wouldn't mind a scenario that saw them land Hunter if they traded out of the first round).