Anthony Richardson vs. Will Levis: Who is Best for the Colts?

Accuracy

Accuracy is an area both quarterbacks need to improve on. While both can be very accurate at times, consistency with their accuracy will be crucial for them to be successful in the NFL. To determine which quarterback has been more accurate, we will look at adjusted completion percentage (ADJ%) and catchable percentage (CBL%).

ADJ% is the percentage of aimed throws (excluding spikes, Hail Marys, and batted passes) that were on-target to their intended receiver. Using this statistic from Pro Football Focus helps eliminate drops and other uncontrollable elements from the equation, as Richardson and Levis had to play with subpar supporting casts. Levis has quite the advantage in this category, with the Wildcat holding a 75.6% ADJ% compared to the 64.1% ADJ% of Richardson in 2022.

CBL% is the percentage of throws that conceivably could have been caught by the receiver, according to Sports Info Solutions. Spikes, Hail Marys, and batted passes are excluded in this metric to get a better measure of the true CBL%. Levis comes out on top, once again, with an 85% CBL% compared to an 80% CBL% for Richardson.

Levis has proven to be the more accurate quarterback throughout his college career. However, both need to improve their accuracy at the next level to reach their ceilings. Luckily, Steichen believes accuracy can be improved with coaching.

“I think you can help accuracy, I definitely do, with mechanics and I think part of it too is the scheme you put him in," he explained. "Don’t make them think too much sometimes and simplify the offense to build it around the quarterback.”

Decision-Making

Decision-making is hard to quantify with a statistic. Pointing strictly to interceptions is a poor way to determine whether a quarterback is making good decisions. Many factors go into whether a ball is intercepted or not and who the blame should fall on.

To quantify this, we will look at another metric by PFF called turnover worthy play rate (TWP%). TWP% is the percentage of passing and rushing attempts a quarterback has that result in a turnover-worthy play. A turnover-worthy play qualifies as a pass with a high percentage chance of being intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.

Richardson slightly edges out Levis in this category with a 3.3% TWP% compared to the 3.6% TWP% of Levis. Decision-making is another area where both quarterbacks must improve at the next level. However, Richardson already has a leg up in this department despite starting half as many games as Levis at the collegiate level.

Ability to Create

We are seeing it more and more in the NFL today. Quarterbacks have to be athletic and have the ability to extend plays when things break down. Being able to create a positive play out of nothing is something Patrick Mahomes does incredibly well, and why he is widely considered the best quarterback in the NFL today.

To determine who is better at being able to create, the metrics we will be using are big-time throw rate (BTT%) and percentage of pressures turned into sacks (P2S%). BTT% is the percentage of passing attempts that constitute a big-time throw, which is a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window. P2S% is the percentage of pressures on a quarterback that has turned into sacks.

Richardson is the clear winner in this category, according to both statistics. The Florida Gators quarterback held a BTT% of 5.5% in 2022. He more than doubles the BTT% of Levis at 2.3%.

Looking at P2S%, Richardson holds an even greater margin between the two. Richardson amassed a 9.2% P2S% in 2022, while Levis struggled to a 26.8% PS2%. That means Richardson was sacked only once for every ten pressures, while Levis was brought down almost a fourth of the time he was pressured.

It must be stated that Levis played through multiple injuries last season that could have impacted his ability to escape the pocket and not collect as many sacks. But even when healthy in 2021, Levis's P2S% was 20.3%. Richardson's ability to create and keep plays alive is one of the reasons his upside is so enticing to NFL evaluators.

Obsessed with Their Craft

Measuring a quarterback's obsession with their craft cannot be correlated by a statistic. Instead, the Colts will find this out through the intense interview process with each prospect.

Part of that evaluation will be speaking with various coaches involved with the players. For Levis, his coaches had glowing remarks regarding his work ethic and leadership.

"Will's work ethic and the way he came in and ran the show," Kentucky offensive coordinator Liam Coen said. "His personality is one of which that guys naturally follow. I think that obviously you guys can see some of the arm strength talent and some of the things that he can do throwing the football ... His best football is still ahead of him. I truly believe that Will will have a long, successful NFL career."

"All of us want to see leaders that lead by example and kind of set the tone and (Levis) certainly does that," commented Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops. "He's very critical and hard on himself first ... He wants to be the very best and trains and works like that each and every day. That rubs off on people when they see that work ethic."

Richardson has been lauded for his work ethic as well. While Richardson only started one full season in college, his coaches have noticed his dedication to football.

“(Richardson’s) thinking about probably the six or eight plays where he could have done a little bit better,” Florida head coach Billy Napier said after the Gators' upset win over Utah in Week 1. “That’s what I love about him. He’s very critical of himself. He’s an unbelievable competitor. We all know that kid’s got physical talent – we’ve known that for a long time – but what’s impressed me is his work ethic, discipline, his detail. He’s a good teammate, he’s a great example. He’s selfless.”

Richardson has talked about his desire to be the best, stating he wanted to be the greatest of all time at the NFL Combine. He preached that same goal at his pro day.

"I'm a workhorse," Richardson said. "I'm going to work to be the greatest. I'm going to continue to work. A lot of people would say I have a lot of things to clean up, so I'm definitely going to try to clean those things up."

While the Colts will get a clearer sense of which player is more obsessed with their craft, it seems like both Richardson and Levis check the required boxes here. Both work tirelessly to get better and have the desire to be great.

Who is Best for the Colts?

Both Richardson and Levis possess many of the qualities the Colts want to see from their quarterbacks. Indy seems to be interested in both of these physically gifted prospects.

While accuracy is an area both need to work on, Levis is currently the more accurate. Richardson has an edge in both decision-making and the ability to create, two huge attributes. Both prospects seem obsessed with their craft and have a strong desire to improve and be the best.

What, then, might be the deciding factor for the Colts? As we know, Ballard loves to bet on players with elite traits. He said so himself in an episode of "With The Next Pick," the mini-series produced by Colts Productions giving a behind-the-scenes look at the Colts' draft process.

"But I want to make sure we're getting the best guys with traits," Ballard said to his scouting staff. "Let's bet on traits. Bet on high-end, high-end traits."

If the Colts are going to bet on the prospect with the better traits, Richardson is their guy. His combination of size (6'4", 244 pounds), speed (4.43 40-yard dash), and athleticism are unlike anything ever seen at the quarterback position. He also has the strongest arm in the class, allowing him to throw to every blade of grass on the field.

Richardson would fit best in an RPO, vertical attacking offense that allows the team to take advantage of his deep ball and running ability. An offense similar to what Hurts ran with Philadelphia Eagles last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance would be perfect. The guy leading that offense? Steichen.

Richardson and Levis are very talented prospects with a chance to succeed in the NFL. The Colts will want to go with the player that gives them the best opportunity to compete in a loaded AFC for years to come.

In order to compete with the other alien quarterbacks, you need an alien of your own. Richardson could very well be that alien.

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