Are the Miami Dolphins a Bottom Third Team Entering the 2025 Season?

Just reading the headline, you want to shout, “What is this guy talking about?” The Dolphins, coming off an 8-9 season in which their QB missed a third of the season and still almost made the postseason? Same team that is one season removed from almost getting the one seed in the AFC with a full healthy Tua Tagovailoa, before a late-season collapse? How could they even be considered a bottom-third team, in the same neighborhood as the Raiders, Panthers, and Titans, and with longer odds than some very questionable teams? I am not saying they are, but the sportsbooks are.

Wait, what?

That’s right. Across the board, the major sportsbooks all have the Dolphins’ Super Bowl odds in the bottom third of the league’s 32 teams. Most of them have the Dolphins at 80-1 to win it all, with Fantatics Sportsbook a little more optimistic at 65-1. But all of them, DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel, and BetMGM, have no more than 10 teams with longer odds than the Dolphins.

Now, this all needs to be taken with a grain of salt as it’s only late June, but what are the books actually saying here?

Let’s start with the least optimistic of the bunch at FanDuel Sportsbook. While matching the 80-1 price that most other books have, FanDuel only has SEVEN teams with longer odds than Miami. That’s the Raiders (100-1), Panthers (110-1), Jets (200-1), Titans (210-1), Giants (240-1), Browns (320-1), and Saints (400-1). Yeah, that neighborhood.

Now, all those teams have significantly longer odds, so the FanDuel isn’t saying Miami is as bad as them. However, let’s look around Miami instead. The Colts have the same odds at 80-1. Who is better? Well, they both finished 8-9, and Indy won the head-to-head last season in one of the worst games you’ve ever watched (yeah, I was there). But Tua was not there, and the Dolphins led throughout. The Colts may have “upgraded” from Anthony Richardson to Daniel Jones in theory, but are you really putting them on the same level as a Tua-led Dolphins team? FanDuel says to expect a repeat of the teams’ matching wins from last season.

The Patriots are at 70-1. Hold on a minute. Hold on. The 4-13 Patriots, who may have had a nice offseason, signing Stefon Diggs, if healthy, to be a weapon for Drake Maye and remade their defense with the signings of Milton Williams, Harold Landry Carlon Davis and Robert Spillane, but have they closed a 4-game gap on a Miami team that didn’t have a fully healthy Tua? I do honestly believe the Pats will be better and maybe have closed the gap a little on Miami, but I would not give them shorter Super Bowl odds just yet. Drake Maye has four more NFL wins than I do.

The Jags at 70-1? Another 4-win team with shorter odds than Miami. Trevor Lawrence should be back, but he was still the QB during the 2-7 start. How much has changed in Jacksonville to have them with shorter Super Bowl odds than the Dolphins?

Falcons at 60-1, Seahawks 55-1, and the Steelers, Cowboys, and Cardinals at 47-1 at FanDuel. While you can probably point to something on all of these teams that they do better than Miami, you are still talking about four teams that did not make the playoffs last season and one team that had no business there in the Steelers. Seattle lost their QB and WR, Atlanta is all in on a 2nd-year QB, Dallas has been a trainwreck, and how much are you actually trusting Aaron Rodgers, 3 seasons removed from his last actual good season? I’d say it’s 50-50 at best for each one of these teams to be better or worse than Miami, but to have significantly shorter odds just doesn’t add up. While the books do get more public money on the Cowboys than necessary, there is no planet in which their Super Bowl odds are almost half as much as Miami’s.

It’s not any better at BetMGM. They do list Miami ahead of Indy (100-1) and tied with Jacksonville and Atlanta (80-1), but still have the Patriots, Seahawks, Cardinals, Steelers, and Cowboys all at much shorter odds.

Now, I wouldn’t take Miami at 80-1 to win the Super Bowl, regardless, but you are getting much better odds than betting on Dallas at 47-1, Atlanta at 60-1, or the Patriots at 70-1. The 80-1 price actually makes sense to me. What you lose me is saying all those other teams are better. I disagree there.