Are The Patriots Being Disrespected By Vegas This Week?

Patriots (+3) Vs. Ravens

The Patriots are headed to Baltimore this weekend to take on the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots are looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss to the Buffalo Bills last week and keep their lead in the AFC East. After Sunday’s loss, the Patriots only sit 1.5 games ahead of Buffalo in the standings with two divisional games remaining on their schedule. To maintain their position in the standings, the last three games become crucial with Buffalo now right on their heels.

Despite the Patriots being 11-3 and one of the most consistent teams all year, they are underdogs in the eyes of the oddsmakers. The 7-7 Baltimore Ravens are currently 3-point favorites in this matchup. The line in that game is raising some eyebrows, enough to have 70% of total bets placed on DraftKings being placed on the Patriots. What does Vegas see that we might be missing?

Home-Field Advantage

In football, home-field advantage equates to three points in favor of the home team. That means on a neutral field, the oddsmakers see the 11-3 New England Patriots and the 7-7 Baltimore Ravens as equal teams. Granted, the Ravens suffered earlier in the year without their two-time MVP quarterback, Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have been better since his return in Week 9; however, Jackson’s individual performances have not been up to his standard. In the seven games he’s played since returning from injury, he has nine touchdown passes and five interceptions. In five of those seven games, he’s completed less than 60% of his passes, and four of them he’s thrown for less than 200 yards.

Lamar’s capabilities go beyond his ability to throw the football. He’s arguably the most athletic quarterback in NFL history and can be deadly running the ball. New England has struggled this year against quarterbacks who can use their legs. Which is part of a bigger issue New England has had this season.

Patriots Run Defense

The Patriots’ run defense has taken a major step back. In weeks 1-12, they had the #1 run defense in football. They had only allowed one running back to have more than 50 yards, which was Sean Tucker for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who had 53 yards. Since that time, opposing offenses are averaging 133 rushing yards per game against the Patriots.

This is in large part due to Milton Williams injuring his ankle against the Bengals in Week 13, and he has been on the injured reserve list ever since. He is eligible to return to play after this weekend. Robert Spillane, the team’s leading tackler, was dressed but did not play last week, also due to an ankle injury. He has not practiced with the team this week, and his status for Sunday’s game remains a question.

The Patriots have a tall task ahead of them this weekend. Derrick Henry has been one of the premier running backs in football for the better part of the last decade. He has already eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark this year, making it his fourth consecutive season with 1,000 rushing yards. With Lamar Jackson’s volatile performances since his return, they’ve leaned heavily on Henry in the run game. The Patriots’ run defense is seen as a weakness, and Baltimore will test it.

Overreaction To Last Week

People have been questioning just how good the Patriots are. Their record is impressive; however, they’ve had one of the easiest schedules in league history. Last week against Buffalo was their chance to prove that they are as good as their record says they are. Blowing a 21-0 lead at home left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths.

It’s fair to question them at this point. A win this week puts them in a great position to win the division and keep the #2 seed in the AFC. A big-time win in a primetime matchup against a former two-time MVP would make a big statement to the rest of the league that the Patriots are indeed a team to look out for in the playoffs.