
By all accounts, the Arizona Cardinals are underdogs marching into their Week 12 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Cardinals, 3-7 on the season, host the 6-4 Jaguars at State Farm Stadium with just a 45.2% chance to win according to ESPN's matchup predictor. Jacksonville is a -2.5 point favorite on the spread despite being the road team.
The Jaguars aren't the heaviest favorites, and though the Cardinals could very conceivably win this game, most expect Arizona to suffer another loss.
However, ESPN's Ben Solak says don't be surprised if the Cardinals walk out of Sunday with a win thanks to a few different factors.
"Arizona's past two games have been embarrassing: 44 and 41 points apiece surrendered to divisional opponents. But early first-quarter deficits have thrown their games off script, and I still believe in this Brissett-led offense against a Jaguars defense that needs turnovers to be successful," Solak wrote.
"Arizona is 3-7, but that coaching staff is fighting for their jobs. I expect a desperate home performance."
The Cardinals lost their previous five games by 13 combined points before suffering back-to-back blowouts at the hands of division rivals in Seattle and San Francisco.
Jacksonville is second in the NFL in turnovers forced defensively, which was a major talking point for Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon this week.
"Part of the tape today, Jacksonville's done a really good job of earning some takeaways and capitalizing on some takeaways a little bit (differently) in my opinion. The quarterback air mails it and hits the free safety in the chest; that's kind of capitalizing on it," Gannon said.
"Quarterback throws an out cut and the corner's playing off and he drives the heck out of it and lays out and makes a play, that's earning it. They're all earned, I'm not diminishing the effect of taking the ball away when the offense puts it at harm's risk, but I think there's layers to that too. Credit to Jacksonville, they've done both."
Arizona also faces an uphill battle when it comes to running the ball, as Emari Demercado was ruled out while Trey Benson wasn't activated to return from injured reserve over the weekend.
Jacksonville has the second-ranked run defense entering Sunday.
"I truly believe they're playing good defense right now and they're taking the ball away. Certain games look a little bit different (but) that's why I think Anthony's doing a really good job of how they choose to defend certain people," Gannon continued.
"You can tell kind of the flavor of the week a little bit in my opinion, and they've had guys in and out of the lineup too. We just have to have what we want to try to attack, and then when they throw some curve balls, have some adjustments ready.”
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