Avoid This First Round Bust In Fantasy Football

After being drafted sixth overall, the rookie running back is expected to be one of the most valuable assets in fantasy football. His 2,601 rushing yards at Boise State last year ranked second in NCAA history, only behind Barry Sanders. Clearly, the hype is deserved, but is it truly warranted?

When watching his tape, Jeanty steamrolls defenders on nearly every carry. He serves as a truly generational talent that could potentially reform this offense overnight. 

Why Is Jeanty A Fantasy Football Bust?

Despite his generational talent, Jeanty still serves as a risky pick in the first round of fantasy football drafts. It’s easy to forget that the Las Vegas Raiders got the sixth overall pick for a reason last year. The offense scored an abysmal 18.2 points per game last season, tied for fourth-worst in the league. 

The arrival of head coach Pete Carroll and veteran quarterback Geno Smith is sure to help the offense, but there is no reason to believe this team is set up to succeed in 2025. In the NFL, rarely does a new regime bring in a new system that flourishes in year one. Working behind a mediocre offensive line, the weapons in Vegas won’t have it easy. The offense projects to be better than last year, but honestly, it doesn’t say much.  Expectations for the offense as a whole should be tamed until fans see something that suggests otherwise. 

The situation surrounding Jeanty this year is eerily similar to that of wide receiver Marvin Harrison last season. Coming into the league with showstopping talent, Harrison’s draft investment and unanimous praise shot him up to the first round of fantasy drafts. 

He’s being drafted around players who have already proven they can produce at the highest levels in the NFL. In other words, he’s being drafted at his ceiling. The best-case scenario for those drafting Jeanty is that he returns on his ADP. The median is that he wildly disappoints as a low-end RB1. Worst case, he’s an RB2, which would more than likely tank playoff hopes for the fantasy managers that spent a first-round pick on him. 

End Of My Fantasy Bust Rant

Despite the on-field hype surrounding Jeanty being warranted, the fantasy hype is getting out of control. The argument here is not in the fact that he’s a bad player; he is simply being drafted too high. To meet his current ADP, he would need to have a season unlike anything we’ve seen before.