Tremaine Edmunds isn't giving up the ball after an interception as the Bears defense celebrates a turnover against Detroit. Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Bears Playoff Chances Developing into a True Coin Toss

Originally posted on Chicago Bears on SI
By Gene Chamberlain | Last updated Jul 3, 2024 10:15 AM ET

The Bears attaining playoff status in 2024 is perceived as a coin flip.

At least according to Pro Football Focus betting and calculations, the chances are less than 50% but their chances are better than all but 14 other teams.

This puts them right on the edge for the playoffs.

In its market-implied power rankings targeting bettors, PFF has Bears chances for the playoffs at 43.28%, which ranks tied for 15th. This, even though PFF has the Bears rated tied for 17th overall as a team in terms of point spread rating.

Do the @chicagobears NEED to sign Ryan Tannehill??@chrisbleck & @AdamAAbdalla were at odds on this one

full convo: https://t.co/Rhq9Rci0U5 pic.twitter.com/oFufKUWlCn
— ESPN 1000 (@ESPN1000) June 25, 2024

They've calculated Bears chances at a Super Bowl win to be 2.51%, to win the NFC championship at 4.99% and to finish ahead of the Packers, Lions and Vikings in the NFC North at 19.82%.

PFF assigns teams point spread team ratings and that's where they are 17th at minus-0.9

ONE CALEB WILLIAMS QUALITY MOST IMPRESSING BEARS GM RYAN POLES

THE BEARS POSITION GROUP TOTALLY DISRESPECTED

CHICAGO BEARS ROOKIE PROGRESS TRACKER

They grade quarterback Caleb Williams as being worth 2.5 points toward their weekly given point spread and that leaves him 21st in this category.

remember when dan o wanted the chicago bears to actually take jayden daniels #1 overall for twitter engagements? & now we are supposed to listen to his “in depth insights.” pic.twitter.com/betrXWHwuH
— Jimbo (@james_sweener) June 25, 2024

The Packers and the Lions, within the division, count for more impact on the point spread than Williams.

At least their ranking in PFF’s look at betting rates their chances for the playoffs at better than what CBS Sports determined earlier this week. Two analysts looked at their chances and determined they wouldn’t hit the 8 ½ over/under win total.

The chances being reflected by PFF's calculations do not meet the level suggested earlier by betting sites. Earlier this offseason, FanDuel 's implied probability for the Bears in the playoffs was 52.4%.

The Bears have decent odds for success in 2024. pic.twitter.com/chJQaC8kNu
— Bears History (@ChiBearsHistory) June 10, 2024

The coin toss scenario is reflected in FanDuel's current Bears playoff odds. They come in almost at 50-50. The line pays at -115 to make the playoffs and -105 that they don't make the playoffs.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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