Bears vs. Bills prediction, pick, NFL preseason odds for 8/10

Bears vs Bills Prediction

Pick: Over 38.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Bears vs. Bills Weather

Chris Baker Makes His Bears vs Bills Prediction

Bears Starters Will Play a 'Range of Plays'

It looks like Caleb Williams will play for at least a series or two here. Head Coach Matt Eberflus said starters would play in a “range of plays,” so take that how you will. When the Bears starting offense is on the field, it will look wildly different than last season as they added Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, De’andre Swift, and Gerald Everett to their skill position groups.

Between Odunze, Allen, and D.J. Moore Caleb Williams should have plenty of opportunities to throw to open receivers this season.

The Bills are expected to play their starters in the first quarter, so Caleb will have to produce against a top-10 defense in his first appearance in the NFL. The Bears should be in decent hands once Caleb leaves the field, as we will likely see a combination of Tyson Bagent and Brett Rypien.

Bagent showed flashes of talent in his NFL starts last year and managed to pull off a 2-2 record in his four starts. Brett Rypien has been a journeyman for most of his career, but he looked competent in the Hall of Fame Game against the Texans last week as he threw for 177 yards and three passing touchdowns.

We’ll see if that was more a reflection of the Texans weak pass defense or of Rypien’s genuine competency in this matchup against a better Bills secondary.

Bills Hoping to Develop Chemistry

Josh Allen should play for the entire first quarter and I’d expect the Bills offense to have success against the Bears defense. The Bears didn’t really make many upgrades on defense outside of S Kevin Byard this offseason. The Bears finished 19^th in defensive pass EPA last year and their secondary is very young and inexperienced still with Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, and Jaquan Brisker starting.

The Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in free agency and replaced them with rookie WR Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel from the Commanders. The WR trio of Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Keon Coleman is speedy and athletic and I think the Bills will still be an elite offensive unit as Gabe Davis and Diggs weren’t really performing well towards the end of last season anyway.

Stefon Diggs struggled with drops and struggled to get open at the same rates as he finished the season ranking 76^th percentile in success rate against man coverage and in the 67^th percentile of success rate against zone coverage, according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception which charts every wide-receiver route and their ability to get open. Diggs had previously been above the 95^th percentile in both categories every season of his career, so he is still good but likely not an elite WR like he was when the Bills traded for him.

Gabe Davis finished the season with a poor 53.8% success rate against man coverage (7^th percentile) and a 76.3% success rate against zone coverage (30^th percentile). Enter Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel, which gives me reason to believe the Bills could even improve offensively in 2024.

The Bills offense may have to develop some chemistry before they are dominant, but when Josh Allen is under-center you can expect this to be a top-10 offense in the NFL regardless of who is lining up at WR. When Josh Allen leaves the field, this will turn into a Mitch Trubisky revenge game, and then we should see QB3 Shane Buechele for some reps as well.

Buechele has never taken a regular season snap in the NFL, but he does have lots of preseason experience over the past three seasons with the Chiefs throwing for nine total passing touchdowns and seven interceptions over that span.

Bears +1.5, Bills -1.5 (FanDuel)

Chris Baker's Bears vs Bills Over/Under Prediction

I like the over at 38.5 here, as we should see roughly a quarter of starting offense and then we will be getting competent QB play for most the game between Bagent, Trubisky, and Rypien.

Looking down the depth charts on each of these teams, and there is definitely skill-position talent, as the Bears feature guys like Velus Jones, Tyler Scott, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson as their backups.

The Bills have an intriguing depth chart as well offensively with speedsters KJ Hamler, Chase Claypool, Andy Isabella, and Marquez-Valdez Scantling. Ultimately, I think these offenses will both have edges here, and I think we'll see Saturday's matchup clear this high preseason total of 38.5.

Pick: Over 38.5 (-105, FanDuel)