Bears vs. Texans prediction, pick, odds, how to watch 'Sunday Night Football'

Bears vs. Texans Picks

SPREAD

I'm staying away from the spread as of Saturday night since I'm right in line with the market, but the game-time statuses of Allen and Odunze create a lot of moving parts. I don't mind teasing the Texans down to -0.5 and pairing them with the Ravens, but a moneyline parlay with those two teams is a safer bet.

Pick: Tease Texans to -0.5

MONEYLINE

Given the uncertainty with a talented rookie quarterback making his second start amid a banged up supporting cast, the only bet I feel confident about is the Texans on the moneyline, with the best line available at DraftKings, according to our NFL odds page.

Unless you've got a big bankroll, you're probably going to want to parlay them with the Ravens (-410 at DraftKings), who are in a good bounce-back spot at home on long rest against the Raiders.

Pick: Parlay Ravens & Texans MLs

TOTAL

The total is also a tough call given the questionable status of two key offensive players. It would be under or nothing for me in this spot, but we have early indications that the new kickoff rules have resulted in an increase in scoring, so there's a lot of variance in this market.

Pick: Lean Under 46.5

Bears vs. Texans Odds

Sunday, Sept. 15

8:20 p.m. ET

NBC

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Bears-Texans Point Spread: Bears +6.5 | Texans -6.5
• Bears-Texans Total: Over/Under 45,5
• Bears-Texans Moneyline: Bears +225 | Texans -275

NFL Sunday Night Football Picks

Note: All statistics are from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.

This game is difficult to truly handicap until we know the status of wide receivers Keenan Allen (questionable; heel) and Rome Odunze (questionable; MCL), who are both game-time decisions.

Allen didn't practice all week but seems more likely of the two to play. Odunze got in a limited session on Friday, but his MCL sprain was initially reported as a week-to-week injury by ESPN's Adam Schefter, so the game-time-decision designation could be a bit of gamesmanship by Bears head coach Matt Eberflus.

Despite adding DE Danielle Hunter, the Texans generated a pressure rate of just 16.7%, which ranks 25th heading into Sunday's game. The Colts' offensive line is a high-end unit, however, and Houston should have more success against a rookie quarterback in its own building.

With that being said, the Texans are still vulnerable on the back end. Anthony Richardson averaged 23.6 yards per completion against Houston's secondary and left a bunch of yardage on the table with off-target throws.

Caleb Williams had the same issue in Week 1, but Allen and Odunze are more likely to get downfield separation, as well as free up DJ Moore to do the same, providing Williams with larger passing windows. If both are out, the Bears will likely be forced to use Moore as an underneath receiver again — he had five receptions for 36 yards with a 4.4 aDOT (per PFF) on eight targets in Week 1 — which is not the best use of his abilities.

If Allen is active, he could assume that underneath role, even if he's mostly a decoy. With fullback Khari Blasingame (hand) out, you would think Cole Kmet gets a bump in playing time after getting outsnapped by Gerald Everett 34-27 overall and 24-15 on passing downs.

But that's the issue with the Bears offense — there are a ton of unknowns after Shane Waldron made a mess of the game plan in Week 1, and the floor could be even lower this week. Williams will enter Sunday night coming off a week in which he failed to get sorely needed practice time with two of his top three wide receivers. A non-existent running game lost its fullback and starting guard Ryan Bates (IR;shoulder).

The Texans, meanwhile, are at nearly full health. In C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, they have the passing-game chops to have success against a strong Bears secondary that held Will Levis to 104 net passing yards on 35 dropbacks (3.0 net yards per attempt).

The Bears were better in the second half with their run fits after letting Tony Pollard go off for 9-64-1 in the first half, but overall, they still allowed 20-103-1 to Pollard (16-82-1) and Tyjae Spears (4-21-0), so the Texans have to be feeling good about how they match up on the ground after Joe Mixon went off for 30-159-1.

According to PFF, Mixon's 101 yards after contact were the second-most of Week 1, behind only Rhamondre Stevenson's 118. Yards after contact tends to be a stickier, more predictive metric than yards before contact, so that is a positive development, especially after last year's No. 1 back, Devin Singletary finished tied for 37th of 63 qualifiers with 2.85 yards after contact per carry.

Best Bet for Bears vs. Texans

Stroud is 4-4 straight-up on the road but 6-2 SU at home, where his efficiency numbers see a bump:

• Home: 65.5% completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 6.1% TD rate, 108.3 passer rating
• Road: 63.6% completion rate, 7.8 YPA, 3.1% TD rate, 94.6 passer rating

Williams will have better days, but with the Bears offense in a state of flux and their defense meeting its match, I think this is the spot Williams takes his first loss. My favorite bet, if you see this early enough in the day on Sunday, would be to parlay the Ravens and Texans' moneylines.

Spread Pick: Tease Texans to -0.5
ML Pick: Parlay Ravens & Texans MLs
Total Pick: Lean Under 46.5

Betting Trends

• 65% of bets and 14% of the money are on the Bears to cover the spread.
• 71% of bets and 57% of the money are on the over.
• 92% of bets and 91% of the money on the moneyline are on the Texans.

How to Watch Bears vs. Texans

Chicago vs. Houston is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET, live from NRG Stadium in Houston on Sunday night. The game will be live on NBC.

About the Author

Chris Raybon is a senior analyst at the Action Network, specializing in NFL, NBA, and fantasy football betting. He hosts The Action Network Podcast, with profitable NFL ATS picks every season, and the Fantasy Flex Podcast, while regularly appearing on NBA TV’s NBA BET and Turner Sports’ The Line. With over 15 years of betting experience, Chris boasts a 57% all-time winning percentage on NFL bets and top-5 finishes in FantasyPros accuracy rankings.

Follow Chris Raybon @ChrisRaybon on Twitter/X.