Bengal Bets: Top Picks For Wild Card Rematch Against Baltimore

Bengals -9.5 (-110 SI Sportsbook)

I've only bet against the Bengals once this season, and we aren't starting that back up against another Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team. Everyone knows by now, but the Bengals are the best cover team in the NFL over the last two seasons (20-4 last 24 games).

Last week they barely missed their eighth-straight cover (-11.5) in the 27-16 win. 

Without Lamar and any threatening receivers I don't see how the Raven stay within single digits. Here is how he and backup Tyler Huntley compare this season.

• Huntley: 2-2 SU/ATS, 27th overall QBR, 27th overall DVOA, 38 of 62 QBs EPA/play
• Jackson: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, ninth overall QBR, 14th overall DVOA, 14 of 62 QBs EPA/play

Baltimore's defense gave Cincinnati some problems last week, but I'm highly skeptical we see Joe Burrow play poorly again.

He's posted back-to-back outings with less than a 40 QBR once in the NFL (@NYJ, V. CLE last season). All while Baltimore is averaging 12 PPG in five games without Jackson.

The trends speak for themselves, back the Bengals.

• Over the past 20 seasons, Wild Card hosts that made the playoffs the prior year: 25-12-3 against the spread
• Over the past 20 seasons, Betting against road wildcards on a one-game losing streak: 14-3 ATS
• Over the past 20 seasons, Wild Card home favorites of nine-plus points: 8-0 ATS
• The Ravens and Giants are underdogs this week averaging 4.5-plus yards per rush this season. Over the last 20 seasons, nine teams have entered the playoffs as underdogs averaging 4.5+ yards/rush, they are 1-8 SU and ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.1 PPG.
• Teams playing in the Wild Card Round coming off a double-digit loss in their last game are only 6-13 ATS in the last 20 years.
• Burrow in 40-degree temperatures or less: 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS

Trenton Irwin O5.5 Receiving Yards (-120 SI Sportsbook)

The Bengals found the mystery fourth receiver for their attack this season, as Irwin's slotted into that role nicely. We are rolling with Irwin here because of the track record and lack of volume needed.

One catch should send the Stanford product over this mark. He has at least 12 receiving yards in eight of his nine games this season, including last week's game against the Ravens. Plus, he is averaging a healthy 15.4 yards per catch.

He only played 12 snaps last week, but got multiple targets, as he has in seven of nine games. The chances of this cashing go even higher if Cincinnati starts to blow out Baltimore, as Irwin gets more snaps in the event of starter rest.

Roquan Smith O9.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)

The newly paid linebacker was fantastic last week, posting 16 tackles for the Ravens. 

I don't see any reason why he can't hit double-digits again.

Cincinnnati should control possession in this game, meaning more tackle chances for Smith (cleared 9.5 in four of his past six games). The Ravens will try to force them into long drives and take away explosive options.

Cincinnati targets running backs 8.4 times per game (third most in NFL), leaving plenty of clean up chances for Smith at the second level. They also have allowed an off-ball linebacker to go over 9.5 tackles in six of the past 10 games. 

Smith posts another productive outing on Sunday. 

Cincinnati and Baltimore run it back in the Wild Card round on Sunday at 8:15 p.m. ET. The game is available on NBC via fuboTV—start your free trial here.