Bengal Bets: Top Wagers as Cincinnati Welcomes the Atlanta Falcons to Paycor Stadium

The Cincinnati Bengals host the Atlanta Falcons in a battle of 3-3 teams on Sunday. 

Zac Taylor's crew is heating up against the number, covering four-straight spreads—while helping Bengal Bets notch another winning week. QB Joe Burrow played a clean game with no interceptions, and the Bengals covered -2.5, but Joe Mixon kept us from perfection with just eight carries.

Now, Cincinnati's run defense has all eyes on them facing the top rushing DVOA team in the league and a head coach in Arthur Smith that's not afraid to pull out wonky offense to win.

Let's get to this week's picks.

Season Record: 12-6 (+3.66 units)

Joe Burrow O282.5 Passing Yards -125 (SI Sportsbook)

The computer has enough information for scorched earth mode. The Bengals' offense found a nice formula to move the ball over the last six quarters, and it relies on Burrow stacking yards.

The quick passing game is now en vogue via RPOs and pre-snap recognition from the franchise QB. He looked very comfortable throwing short and taking what the defense gave him. On attempts 10-yards and shorter against New Orleans, Burrow finished 26-of-29 for 225 yards and one score.

The Saints' defense entered the game in the top half of EPA/dropback and near the middle in passing success rate. Now, Burrow gets to face a much worse pass defense missing its second-best cornerback in Casey Heyward.

Atlanta's pass defense is just not good in any area. The dirty bird defense ranks 29th in total defensive DVOA, 25th in EPA/play allowed, 31st in passing success rate, 18th in EPA/dropback, and 23rd in passing DVOA. Oh, They also don't pressure the QB either, totaling the second-fewest sacks in the league (eight) and the worst pressure rate (12.2%).

Burrow's hit this prop in three games out of six thus far, including the only other game against a bottom-10 passing DVOA defense (Miami). Don't be surprised if he cruises past 400 yards for the fifth time in his young career.

Bengals Team Total O27.5 Points +105

A lot of the same points from the Burrow prop apply here, but now we get to tie in a shaky Falcons rushing defense. The bad, banged-up secondary is paired with a rush defense sitting at 31st in success rate, 24th in EPA/rush, and 25th in rushing DVOA.

Getting deeper into the rushing side of things. Joe Mixon and this offense found something with shotgun RPOs last week. Mixon tallied eight totes for 45 yards and 5.6 yards per carry out of the gun.

According to Rich Hribar, the Bengals are 16th in EPA per rush out of shotgun (-0.06) compared to 31st in EPA per rush (-0.23) under center. Atlanta is 29th in the league in yards per carry allowed (5.97) to runs out of shotgun. That should be the full rushing menu.

The red zone is where this bet gets decided. Just look at the ATL success rate, and EPA/play allowed differences, and it's clear that Atlanta's willing to give up long drives instead of big plays. 

The defense is tied for the most red zone scoring opportunities allowed this season (four per game) and ranks 20th in RZ TD% but has jumped to 12th in that metric over the past three games (TD on 45.45% of drives).

"Well, how have the Bengals done in the red area recently?"

Glad you asked. Cincinnati is eighth in RZ TD rate this season and t-third in the NFL over the past three weeks (TD on 77.78% of RZ trips). Thirty points should not be a difficult ask from this offense in Week 7.

Marcus Mariota O34.5 Rushing Yards -125 (SI Sportsbook)

Marcus Mariota's been a surprise this season simply because Desmond Ridder isn't starting yet. The former second-overall pick got benched by Smith when the two were in Tennessee, but he's holding onto the job thus far thanks in large part to his legs.

Through six weeks Mariota is sixth among QBs in rushing with 43 carries for 206 yards on 4.8 yards per tote. The discrepancy in Cincinnati's defense (seventh-best dropback EPA, 21st in rushing EPA) and the lack of D.J. Reader makes me confident Atlanta will stick to the run even if they trail by two scores early.

Mariota can pass the ball sufficiently in spurts, but they do not want his arm deciding their fate (-1.4 CPOE, 24th). Only Chicago and Tennessee have thrown the ball fewer times than Atlanta, while the Falcons sit in second league-wide with 202 carries. Cincinnati has faced one rushing QB this season, allowing 58 yards on 12 carries to Lamar Jackson.

After totaling six carries for 50 yards last week against the 10th-best rushing EPA defense in San Francisco, Mariota should get more than enough chances to clear 35 yards on the ground.