Bengals Preview: Week 13 vs Los Angeles Chargers

Let’s not pull any punches – the Bengals have proven themselves as, at worst, a legitimate playoff contender. The Steelers may have their share of documented issues, but a 31-point beatdown on Sunday showed the Bengals’ potential as a top team. More importantly, they kept pace with Baltimore at the top of the AFC North. Their schedule doesn’t lighten up the rest of the way. This week, they get an inconsistent Chargers team.

Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses since their week 7 bye. The Bengals opened up a bit of wiggle room in the AFC playoff race, but the Chargers are among several teams still in the thick of the race. Both teams have a lot still to play for, as they each sit second in their respective divisions. This is another big “prove it” spot for the Bengals as they try to separate further from the pack.

Injury Report

Bengals
DOUBTFUL: HB Chris Evans, DL Khalid Kareem, WR Auden Tate, WR Mike Thomas
QUESTIONABLE: OL Trey Hopkins, OL Riley Reiff
ALSO LISTED: CB Darius Phillips

Chargers
OUT: S Alohi Gilman, CB Asante Samuel Jr
ALSO LISTED: CB Tevaughn Campbell, OL Matt Feiler, DB Trey Marshall, LB Kenneth Murray Jr

Odds & Betting Lines

LINE: CIN -160, LAC +135
OVER/UNDER: 49.5
SPREAD: CIN -3.0

(All odds are taken from BetMGM.)

Key Points

Chargers

Almost paradoxically, the Chargers’ defense has been consistent throughout most of the season. They allow a respectable 5.5 yards per play on the season, which ranks 15th in the league, per PFR. Their problem is twofold – one, their rushing defense is the worst in the league in terms of total yards allowed with 1,598. For reference, the Houston Texans are second worst in that category at 1,492, per PFR. That has directly led to the Chargers ranking 29th in the league in total points allowed. The run defense has been a sieve, and while that might make sense against Cleveland, allowing 186 rushing yards to Kansas City or 176 to Philadelphia sans Miles Sanders is flat out not good. They’ll need to be on their game to have a chance against the Bengals.

The Chargers’ offense has been wildly inconsistent since their bye, and nothing sums that up quite like Justin Herbert‘s line. Across those five games combined, he’s completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged a shade under 300 yards per game. In that same stretch, he’s authored a 10 to 6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those numbers aren’t bad, but if you zoom in, we see a striking trend – in two wins, he’s been over 350 yards and 70 percent completions both times. In three losses, he’s been under 225 yards twice and has as many interceptions as touchdowns with 5 apiece. The point is simple – shut Herbert down, and the Chargers’ offense falters.

Bengals

At the risk of repeating myself from the above notes on the Chargers’ D, Joe Mixon has another favorable matchup. He dominated the Steelers last week for a career-high 165 rushing yards and his third consecutive multi-score outing. The Chargers’ defense is bad at stopping the run. That’s a huge plus for the Bengals. In the meantime, all Joe Burrow has to do is not turn it over. In two games since the bye, Burrow hasn’t been as aggressive, but the Bengals have two wins to show for it. As long as he keeps the ball in Cincinnati’s hands, Mixon can handle the heavy lifting.

The Bengals’ secondary should have their hands full. Inconsistent or not, Herbert has weapons in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen that can beat you in just about any way. Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple have been up to the task the last two weeks, with the latter recording interceptions in two straight games. As good as they’ve been, the Chargers should still have an advantage here, but it’s one the Bengals have the ability to at least contain.

Prediction

If we go off of recent patterns like a certain Raiders coin, Herbert is due for a big game this week. While that’s shaky logic to go off of, call it a hunch – he’ll get his on Sunday. That said, I don’t trust the Chargers to stop Mixon if their lives depended on it, as he’s been hot and their run defense has been cold. This will very likely spiral into a shootout, and the winner will be the team who gets the last (and frankly maybe first) stop.

Prediction: Bengals 35, Chargers 28

– Chris Railsback is a contributing writer for the Bengals at Full Press Coverage.