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Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Best and worst NFL betting teams through Week 11

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/22/22

We're already at Thanksgiving week, which feels a bit surreal. Every team has notched at least 10 games, giving us plenty to work with as we look through NFL betting trends in advance of Week 12.

Best teams: ATS

Tennessee Titans (8-2)
New York Giants (7-3)
Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)
Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
New England Patriots (6-3-1)

The Titans big win over the Packers Thursday has vaulted them to the top of spread betting this season, with an 8-2 mark. Tennessee has been favored in just five of their games this season, and are underdogs again this week to another strong ATS team in Cincinnati.

The Giants and Cowboys will meet on Thursday in a game that holds massive playoff implications in the NFC.

The Chargers are just 5-5 but continue to cover the spread consistently, losing to the Chiefs by three points again this past Sunday.

Worst teams: ATS

Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1)
Denver Broncos (3-7)
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6-1)

The Rams' season is toast. They're 3-7, Cooper Kupp may not return, and it's unclear when Matthew Stafford will come back. Without a first round-pick in 2023, things could be getting rough for Los Angeles moving forward.

The Broncos are similarly done, and also don't have a first-round pick next season. All Denver can hope for now is Russell Wilson to figure some things out, get the Broncos more competitive, and gear up for a better 2023. We wouldn't recommend backing Denver ATS.

Best teams: Over

Cleveland Browns (7-2-1)
Detroit Lions (7-3)
Chicago Bears (7-4)

Justin Fields' electrifying play has vaulted Chicago into the NFL's elite when it comes to going over the total. The Bears have now gone over in five straight games, and while they've lost four straight, Fields is seeming very much for real.

The Browns and Lions have been here for much of the season and figure to remain so with the quality of each's defense. Deshaun Watson is set to return next week, which conceivably should help the offensive output.

Best teams: Under

Denver Broncos (9-1)
Indianapolis Colts (9-2)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-2)
Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
New York Giants (7-3)
New York Jets (7-3)
Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Tennessee Titans (7-3)

It's been the story of the season that you've likely tired of reading about should you come here every Tuesday, but unders have dominated the NFL this year.

If you've backed the Broncos unders every week, you're up big, and a similar strategy deployed on Indy and Tampa has been fruitful as well.

Week 12 Games of Interest

There are no overlaps between a positive and negative trend to take advantage of this week, but there are a few examples of intriguing matchups nonetheless.

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (Total: 53.5 points) — The first Thanksgiving game of the day projects to be an explosive one, with this 53.5 total the highest over/under of the week. Buffalo is 3-7 to the over while Detroit is 7-3. Josh Allen and the Bills should be able to pour on 30+ against Detroit, but how confident are you that the Lions can keep up against this Buffalo defense?

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) — Another Thanksgiving game of interest will feature two NFC East teams at 7-3 in the standings and 7-3 ATS. The Cowboys are fresh off a huge win over Minnesota while the Giants got blown out by Detroit. Are we in for a repeat, or will the tables turn for each of these teams in a huge game?

Chicago Bears @ New York Jets (Total: 42 points) — The Bears have come on strong as an over team the past few weeks thanks to the play of Justin Fields. This New York defense is legit, and with reports swirling around the health and availability of Fields this weekend, the under could be the play.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (+1.5) — The Titans are alone as the best ATS team in the NFL, and despite this continue to get no respect from oddsmakers, who have Tennessee as a home underdog to the Cincinnati Bengals. It sounds like Ja'Marr Chase will be back this weekend, a much needed jolt for this Bengals offense. This is going to be a great game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns (Total: 43 points) — The Bucs continue to struggle offensively, with the hope being that the bye week has helped them figure out some issues as they look to take control of the NFC South. The Browns defense is a massive reason why they're the best over team in the NFL, and it's a perfect recipe for Brady and company to get on track.

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