Betting expert says NFC South value pick is Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers haven't won the NFC South since 2015, the year they went 15-1 and made the Super Bowl. They've come close really only once since then, so it's been a serious title drought. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won it four times in a row, and they're the betting favorites (-110) to win it a fifth consecutive time.

The Atlanta Falcons are +250, which doesn't yield a big enough payout in FOX Sports expert Will Hill's eyes. The New Orleans Saints are +1200 and probably won't sniff the crown. That leaves the Carolina Panthers as Hill's best bet at +400.

Because Tampa Bay has such a difficult schedule in first place and Carolina finished really well, Hill likes them as a sneaky pick to win the division. Plus, their offseason efforts have been pretty good so far.

"The Panthers attempted to beef up what was a porous run defense, highlighted by the addition of former Raiders safety Tre’von Moehrig. On offense, standout wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan was drafted eighth overall, with the hopes of giving the resurgent Young an elite go-to target," Hill said.

He added, "If Young can sustain the level of play he flashed late last season, coupled with what should be an improved defense, the Panthers can push the Bucs and Falcons, and make this a three-team race, with the Saints being a team bettors can comfortably dismiss."

And because the Panthers are more unheralded than the Falcons and the Buccaneers are the favorite, Hill thinks the value play here is the Panthers, though there is risk in picking a team that won five games in 2024 and two in 2023 to suddenly win the division.