Image credit: ClutchPoints

Bill Simmons drops bold Patriots prediction under Mike Vrabel

Originally posted on NFL on ClutchPoints
By Evan Dammarell | Last updated Aug 28, 2025 11:43 AM ET

Bill Simmons believes the New England Patriots are ready to surprise the NFL. The popular sports personality predicted this week that the Patriots will jump from four wins to 10 in 2025 under new head coach Mike Vrabel and the development of second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Simmons said Vrabel has already changed the culture inside the organization and that Maye’s talent will allow the franchise to turn the corner.

“I really believe in Drake Maye,” Simmons said. “I really believe he’s talented. My one fear with him is that him taking dumb hits because he kept doing that last year. Can he stay on the field for 17 games? But I genuinely think this could be a breakout thing. I have them at ten and seven.”

That projection would exceed oddsmakers’ expectations. Most sportsbooks have set New England’s win total at 8.5. The Patriots also opened as betting favorites in 11 of their 17 regular-season games, with +115 odds to reach the postseason.

Bill Simmons isn’t alone in believing in the Patriots

New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel delivers a puppy to a local family before addressing the media during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Simmons is not alone. Tony Romo, who made a reputation for accurate forecasting when he began his broadcast career with CBS, recently called New England one of his surprise teams. He cited Vrabel’s leadership, the return of Josh McDaniels, and Maye’s potential as reasons for optimism.

Former star J.J. Watt also weighed in, suggesting that eight or nine wins is the proper baseline for Vrabel’s first season in Foxborough.

“The first year is always hard, but guys like Mike lock a team in fast,” Watt said.

The optimism comes after back-to-back four-win seasons that left New England searching for direction. Vrabel has quickly reshaped the roster, adding proven veterans such as Stefon Diggs, Carlton Davis, and Robert Spillane while drafting left tackle Will Campbell fourth overall to protect Maye. The Patriots also revamped their defensive front with the addition of Milton Williams.

Whether New England can contend for the AFC East remains to be seen, but the tone has shifted dramatically. Simmons’ bold forecast is one more signal that many around the league believe Vrabel’s arrival has positioned the Patriots for a rapid turnaround.

This article first appeared on NFL on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: