As the saying goes, pressure bursts pipes. But it also creates diamonds.
There's no question that being an early draft choice comes with plenty of pressure. But if the early performance doesn't match the draft investment, it will not take long for fans and analysts alike to put players firmly under the microscope. But pressure can also come in other forms — sometimes the pressure comes out of the future outlook, too.
There's a healthy mix of both in the AFC East, where you have teams all over the spectrum from a team building perspective. Some, like the New York Jets, are wiping the slate clean and starting completely over. Others, like the Buffalo Bills, are pushing the envelope to break through the glass ceiling that's sat over an annual contender in recent years.
Who are the recent draft choices from each team facing the most pressure in 2025?
Kincaid was drafted 25th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, putting him firmly in the spotlight as a key investment in quarterback Josh Allen's overhauled supporting cast. Kincaid had a promising rookie season but suffered a regression in a number of ways in 2024. A knee injury cost him a handful of games and his chemistry with Allen has been spotty at times.
Kincaid was second on the team in targets despite the missed time but the pressure he's facing extends beyond just bouncing back to provide production that would justify a first-round draft choice at the position — he's also entering into critical season for rookie contracts. After the 2025 season, Buffalo is going to have to make a decision about Kincaid's fully-guaranteed fifth-year option for 2027.
The 2025 season will be Kincaid's last opportunity to improve his standing within the compensation tiers for fifth-year options, but it's also worth noting that Buffalo will need to ask themselves if they're keen on a fully-guaranteed, non-flexible cap commitment for Kincaid if he has a similar season to 2024 once again this season. So yes, there's pressure to perform up to his pick status but there's also pressure to clinch in a fifth-year option commitment, too.
There will be no fifth-year option conversation for Cam Smith, who was not picked in the first-round when the Dolphins drafted him in 2023. Smith was the 51st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, so he's entering into the third-year of a four-year contract. His first two seasons have been quite uneventful.
Smith has two stints on injured reserve, a stay in Vic Fangio's doghouse and some stern soundbites from his head coach and general manager this offseason to show for his time on task. With the Dolphins finally getting a Jalen Ramsey trade finalized this morning, Miami sorely needs Smith to step up to the plate.
"Cam Smith needs to come through at the end of the day. He’s got to stay healthy and be on the field. He has shown some flashes, but this is a very big year. He knows what’s expected because we can’t hold his hand and wait for him anymore."
- Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier in April
If that doesn't read like someone under pressure, I don't know what does.
Breece Hall has been a productive player in New York the past two seasons. His inclusion here may be a surprise for some, but the dynamics of a team that's just hit the reset button changes the outlook for players on the roster in one key way. For perhaps the only time in their tenure, leadership is operating with some patience and understanding that they're playing a long game.
That intersection doesn't fall in line with Hall's individual timeline, as he's entering into a contract year. He'll try to convince a general manager and a head coach that didn't draft him that they'll need to bring him back and, likely, pay him handsomely to do so. If Hall is allowed to shake loose in free agency after the season, he'll want to have his best foot forward to maximize his value across the league and try to get a handsome free agent deal.
The changing of the guard in New York mixed with a contract year in 2025 puts Hall under a unique amount of pressure to elevate his play.
The 37th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft posted just 12 receptions for 87 yards as a rookie and he's now got a new set of coaches leading him this season — based on their actions, they're not especially invested in any of the holdovers at wide receiver. The Patriots brought in Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams this offseason to further bolster the competition in the room.
Polk's draft status should, in theory, spare him from any abrupt departure this summer. But the Patriots actions paint the picture of a team that's not waiting on anyone to figure anything out. And after such an uneventful rookie season (Polk managed to play 436 snaps), the urgency should be exceptionally high.
Among NFL receivers with at least 30 targets last year, Polk finished dead last out of 118 qualifying receivers in Yards per Route Run, posting a paltry 0.35 mark. The next lowest figure on the year belonged to Jahan Dotson (0.55 yards per route run). Polk also had the fifth lowest passer rating when targeted (54.9) and converted just 23 percent of his contested target opportunities).
Giddy up.
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