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Bills might finally have the formula to beating Chiefs in January
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to pass in the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium. Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Bills might finally have the formula to beating Chiefs in January

It might seem tempting to roll your eyes at the Buffalo Bills' 28-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. 

After all, the Bills have defeated the Chiefs in three of the last four regular seasons only to lose to them in the postseason each year. Time after time, the Chiefs have been able to make the necessary adjustments after their regular-season salvo and then execute better than the Bills when the game matters most. 

There is no question that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will always receive the benefit of the doubt over Josh Allen and Sean McDermott until the Bills can get the monkey off their back in the postseason. Yet while the Chiefs may be able to shrug off Sunday's loss, the Bills displayed some notable changes that could serve them well come January. 

Why the Bills may be better equipped than ever for a January upset of Chiefs 

Though each postseason matchup has featured a different kind of heartbreak for Bills fans, there have been two common themes. Their defensive backs have been unable to keep up with the speed of the Chiefs' receivers, and their defensive line has been unable to consistently pressure and bring down Mahomes.

Understanding their deficiencies, the Bills made a big move in each department this offseason, signing defensive end Joey Bosa to a one-year deal and drafting cornerback Maxwell Hairston in the first round after he posted a 4.28 40-yard dash at the combine. 

Though the Bills may never admit it, each player was brought in specifically for their matchups against the Chiefs, and they have to be thrilled with the early returns. Bosa seemed to be in the backfield all game long, registered four quarterback hits and a sack, while Hairston recorded the first interception of his career and held speedster Xavier Worthy to just 23 yards.

Together, the two new additions helped force Mahomes into the lowest completion percentage of his career and post his lowest passer rating ever against the Bills. 

On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills continued their transition into a run-first offense that really began once the team traded Stefon Diggs after the 2023 season. The Bills were efficient on the ground in last year’s AFC Championship game and they leaned even more heavily on James Cook in this one, giving him 27 carries for 114 yards. And unlike the days of going deep to Diggs and Gabe Davis, Allen prioritized getting the ball out quickly and ended up with the highest completion percentage of his career at 88.4%. 

Another key difference from years past was the Bills' usage of tight end Dalton Kincaid. Though the third-year tight end played in last year's AFC Championship game, he had been limited all year by a knee injury and was held to just two catches for 13 yards. Fully healthy in 2025, Kincaid has been arguably the Bills' most reliable catcher this year and led the team with 101 receiving yards against the Chiefs. With the weakness of the Bills' receiving core and the strength of the Chiefs' cornerbacks, the re-emergence of Kincaid could make all the difference for the Bills' passing attack. 

Even with all the things the Bills did right, the Chiefs still had the ball in the final seconds with a chance to tie the game, thanks in large part to multiple coverage breakdowns in the fourth quarter and a missed kick by Matt Prater. The formula for the Bills is there, but it will be their late-game execution that will determine whether they can finally get over the hump. 

Daniel Fox

Daniel Fox is a 2024 graduate of Ithaca College. He has gained experience over the past five years in all areas of sports broadcasting, including play-by-play, color commentary, podcasting, production, and journalism. Daniel is an avid Boston Sports fan with a particular loyalty to the Red Sox. You can find him on X at @DanBFox1287

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