Bills vs Chiefs Prediction, AFC Championship Preview & Betting Odds

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: How to Watch the NFC Championship, Game Preview

Date: Sunday, January 19, 2025
Game Time: 6:30 pm
How To Watch: CBS
Venue: GEGA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Teams: Kansas City Chiefs (15-2), Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Fiu Bluesky | CFN Bluesky | CFN X | CFN FB

Why Buffalo Bills Will Win

So what did the Bills do so well in the first meeting? It forced two Kansas City takeaways. Patrick Mahomes was picked off twice, the Bills held on to the ball for over 34 minutes, and they took advantage of the scoring chances when they were there.

The offensive line came up with one of its best performances of the season. Allen didn’t get sacked, there were only a few penalties, and the team didn’t buckle like most do when the Chiefs start to put the pressure on.

The Bills have to once again control the clock and tempo. Kansas City doesn’t have the firepower of past teams.

Travis Kelce is old and slow, the home runs aren’t there from Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and the rest of the receiving corps, and overall, it’s about being brutally methodical. But …

Why Kansas City Chiefs Will Win

That’s not a knock.

Kansas City used to play with controlled-hair-on-fire - if that makes any sense - but to put it a different way, this is a more mature team that knows how to get the win.

This time around the offense HAS to flip the time of possession battle.

The Chiefs are second in the NFL in third down conversions, the Buffalo defense isn’t great at coming up with third down stops, and to go college, that first drive by Notre Dame in the National Championship against Ohio State will work.

Just keep getting positive yards. Two here, four there, 3rd-and-2, 4th-and-1, convert - that includes Mahomes running a bit more - and make Buffalo start to press.

And as to those two turnovers against Buffalo in the first meeting, those were the last two turnovers the Chiefs gave away this year. It’s been over two months since this offense has given it up.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: Who Will Win?

Kansas City took out the Bills in the divisional round last year.

Kansas City took out the Bills in the divisional round in 2021.

Again, Kansas City took out the Bills in the AFC Championship in 2020.

This is hardly the best of the Super Bowl teams over the last several seasons, but it’s Kansas City, it’s at home, and that defense will rise up and hold on when it has to.

Mahomes - as always - will get some miraculous break from the officials. The Chiefs - AS ALWAYS - will get one other crazy-weird thing in a massive moment that will go their way, and in another brilliant battle between these two,

it’ll be yet another trip to the Super Bowl to deal with Philadelphia for the second time in three seasons.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs NFC Championship Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: Kansas City 26, Buffalo 23
Line: Kansas City -2, o/u: 48.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 4