Bills vs. Falcons Game Preview: MNF storylines, odds, player to watch & prediction

As of Saturday night, the Bills are 4.5-point favorites to beat the Falcons in Week 6, per FanDuel. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in each of their past two games and are 2-3 against the spread in their first five games of the year.

Atlanta is 2-2 against the spread this season, including a cover as a 2.5-point favorite this past week against the Commanders.

Weather report

The retractable roof will be open at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday night, with temperatures in the 80s expected, along with a 0% chance of precipitation in the forecast. Many Bills fans were hoping the Falcons would keep the roof closed this week to benefit quarterback Josh Allen, who has a remarkable track record while playing in domed stadiums. Allen is 8-1 in domes throughout his career.

Bills’ injuries

The Bills have ruled out three players entering Monday’s game, including linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral), defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (knee) and safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral). Buffalo also announced on Saturday that Sanders and Hamlin would be placed on Injured Reserve, which will keep them out at least the next four games.

It's the second straight absence for Sanders, while Hamlin will be sidelined for the first time this season. Milano will miss his third game of the year after he was injured in Week 2 and subsequently missed Weeks 3 and 4. The former All-Pro attempted to return to action this past week, but exited the game against the Patriots after halftime due to a reaggravation of his injury.

In addition, the Bills listed two players as questionable to play against the Falcons — tight end Dalton Kincaid (oblique) and wide receiver Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs). Kincaid donned a red non-contact jersey throughout the week due to lingering soreness he experienced following the loss to New England. Samuel was limited during Thursday’s practice, then listed as a non-participant on Friday before returning to limited participation on Saturday.

The Bills will see the return of defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Dorian Williams against Atlanta, as neither player has been listed with an injury designation. Oliver has been out since Week 2 due to an ankle injury, while Williams missed this past week’s game against the Patriots due to a knee injury.

Falcons’ injuries

Atlanta will be without its No. 2 wide receiver Darnell Mooney, who has been declared out due to a hamstring injury. The Falcons also declared cornerback Clark Phillips III (triceps/illness), defensive lineman LaCale London (triceps) and defensive lineman Ta’Quon Graham (calf) out for Monday’s game against the Bills, while nickel CB Billy Bowman Jr. (knee/hamstring) and CB Natrone Brooks (concussion) are each questionable to play.

The Falcons will see the return of starting CB A.J. Terrell in Week 6 after he missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury.

Coaching matchup

Sean McDermott’s win percentage fell to .647 with the loss to the Patriots, which drops him into a tie for fifth among active head coaches, equaling the mark of Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. On the other sideline,

Falcons' head coach Raheem Morris is in his second stint as an NFL head coach, having compiled a record of 31-49, good enough for a winning percentage of 0.388. This is about as lopsided a head coaching matchup as you will find in the NFL this season.

Top storyline

The most intriguing matchup to watch in this week’s game will be the Bills’ defense’s attempt to limit the contributions from one of the most electrifying dual-threat players in the league, Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson is second among NFL running backs in yards receiving, totaling 270 yards and a touchdown on 18 receptions, an impressive average of 15 yards per catch.

With the Bills being without Matt Milano for yet another game, that will make defending against Robinson’s catch-and-run ability even more challenging. Milano’s likely replacement, Dorian Williams, has struggled in coverage during his time on the field defensively this season, while the team’s safety tandem of Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop, along with nickel cornerback Taron Johnson, has left some meat on the bone through five weeks.

Player to watch

The Bills’ road to victory this week starts with determining Kincaid’s game-day status, as his presence has been critical for the Buffalo passing game this season. While he has been on the field for an inexplicable 49% of the team’s offensive snaps, 4% fewer than fellow TE Dawson Knox (53%), Kincaid leads the Bills in both yards receiving (287) and touchdowns receiving (3).

If he is to miss Monday’s matchup with Atlanta, that would put Buffalo’s aerial attack at a significant disadvantage against a strong Falcons’ pass defense that, according to NFL Pro, is fifth in the league in passing EPA allowed per play (-0.17) this season.

Prediction — Bills 27, Falcons 24

Bills' fans will be waiting with bated breath to see if their team can bounce back with a win this week against the Falcons. Since the 2021 season, Buffalo is 15-4 after suffering a defeat, including a 3-1 mark in such situations a season ago. The Bills will be looking to get back on track with what I expect will be a tight game throughout.

Even without Mooney, the Falcons have a list of offensive weapons, powered by Robinson, who is a threat to go the distance whenever he touches the football, particularly when going up against Buffalo’s porous run defense. Still, give me the Bills to come away with the victory, albeit a hard-fought one, in this NFC-AFC crossover matchup.

As strong as Atlanta’s pass defense has been this season, the Falcons have displayed some chinks in their armor when it comes to defending against opposing rushing attacks. Atlanta allowed a season-high 6.7 yards per attempt to the Commanders this past week, and if Bills RB James Cook can find similar success early in this game, it should help jumpstart a Buffalo offense that struggled to get going a week ago.