Boom-or-Bust: Can Jaguars Offense Step Up Against the Chiefs?

1. Trevor Lawrence

Coming into the 2025 NFL season, there was some optimism that Trevor Lawrence could emerge as a low-end fantasy starter this year. With Head Coach Liam Coen calling the plays and a deep set of weapons at his disposal, T-Law was expected to have a bounce-back in his last year playing before his new five-year, $275 million contract hits. So far, that hasn't been the case, and NFL.com's Michael Florio doesn't expect a breakout for the Jaguars quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs:

"The Kansas City defense is starting to clamp down. After allowing a huge passing day to Justin Herbert in Week 1, it shut down Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson (who exited the game early with a hamstring injury). Lawrence's one good fantasy outing this season came against a weak Bengals defense. Even if Lawrence and the Jaguars are chasing points, I wouldn't bank on a big fantasy outing against Steve Spagnuolo's D."

2. Brian Thomas Jr.

A lot of Lawrence's struggles this season can be attributed to his failure to establish a connection with rookie star wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. After an explosive first year, there were high hopes that BTJ could have another dominant campaign as the clear WR1 in Liam Coen's system. He's slogged through drops and fought to find a consistent role in this offense so far.

ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft doesn't think he can be trusted in fantasy lineups this week, either:

"One of fantasy's biggest disappointments thus far, Thomas has played 85% of the offensive snaps, has a 23% target share and two end zone targets ... and has only 36.0 fantasy points to show for it, 42nd among wide receivers. His quiet season seems likely to extend for at least another week, considering the Chiefs' elite cornerback play thus far. CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson have allowed only 50.9 points on 40 targets over 270 combined coverage snaps as the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats, and the Chiefs as a team held Malik Nabers and A.J. Brown beneath 10 points in the past two weeks."