Broncos at Texans: 5 Bold Predictions

The Denver Broncos are kicking off a three-game road trip, starting with a tilt vs. the Houston Texans. This game has significant playoff implications for both teams. 

Whichever team walks away with this win has a great chance of making the playoffs, while the loser's outlook plummets based on tiebreakers. Summersports, a football analytics group, ran 10,000 simulations for the rest of the NFL season and released its playoff probability leverage. 

There is no game where the margin for a winner/loser is as wide as this Broncos-Texans game. If the Texans win, they'd go to 50.5% probability (they currently sit a little over 40%). A loss would drop the Broncos to 16.5% (they're sitting about 28% now). 

However, a Broncos win raises them to 43.7% and drops the Texans to 25.3%. Other analytic publications have similar numbers that elevate the stakes of this game. 

ESPN has this game 54%-to-46% in favor of the Texans. If that holds, the Broncos would go from their current 28% chance of making the playoffs to 12%, while the Texans would go from 51% to 68%. 

If the Broncos pull off the upset, they'd go from 28% to 47%, with the Texans dropping from 51% to 31%. So this is a must-win game for the Broncos, as losing would make it extremely difficult to make the playoffs because of tiebreakers, and they'd lose control of their destiny. 

If the Broncos can achieve my bold predictions this week, they'll be well on their way to a win and a playoff berth. A loss makes those early-season games they lost vs. beatable opponents matter even more. 

Let's get to the predictions. 

Wilson Passes for 305-Plus Yards, Rushes for 50-Plus & Scores 2 TD 

Over the season, my bold predictions have not been favorable to Russell Wilson, mainly because of the quality of passing defenses he faced. Well, that will likely change over the remainder of the season as the Broncos have the easiest schedule remaining for passing defenses and the toughest when it comes to rushing defenses. 

The Broncos' passing attack hasn't been great this season, but they have had flashes of brilliance, especially with as few touchdowns over recent weeks. Denver ranks 17th in EPA/Pass play in the NFL, but it has faced tough one passing defense after another while the run game has been mostly working. 

The Texans have issues on defense overall, which should open the door for more stability and consistency from Denver's passing offense. The Texans rank 27th in EPA/pass play allowed in the NFL and 23rd in explosive pass plays allowed (20-plus yards). The door is open for Wilson and the Broncos' passing attack.

Adding more to Denver's opportunity, the Texans rank fifth in EPA/rush play allowed and 10th in explosive rush plays allowed (10-plus yards). Denver can't give up on the run and needs to keep balance, but this is a game where the passing offense has to finally come together and break the door down.

Mims Catches 5 Passes, 2 of 40-Plus Yard, & a TD

Where has Marvin Mims Jr. been? On the season, he has had 15 catches on 21 targets for 282 yards and one touchdown. 

However, nine of Mims' receptions, 11 targets, 242 yards, and his touchdown came in the first four weeks of the season. During that time frame, he played 65 total snaps on offense. 

On the season, Mims has played 258 snaps on offense, with 161 coming during the win streak. During this win streak, he has five catches on nine targets for 36 yards. So, he is seeing the field more frequently but isn't getting used much. 

Part of that is due to the strength of the passing defenses the Broncos have faced, but there's more that goes into it. The Texans allow explosive passing plays often, and Mims needs to find his role in this offense. 

This game is where the square peg matches up with the square hole for Mims to explode back onto the scene on offense, making the Broncos' passing attack more dynamic.  

Broncos Pick Off C.J. Stroud Twice

Stroud was playing such a  clean game up until a few weeks ago. He entered Week 10 with 14 touchdowns to a single interception. Over the past three games, however, he has had five touchdowns to four interceptions, including three against the Arizona Cardinals. 

NFL teams have thrown a lot of Cover 2 and Cover 3 looks at the young quarterback, and he's had repeated success at finding the opening and leading one of the NFL's most explosive offenses. Those two coverage packages are what Vance Joseph and the Broncos have done a lot of this season. 

The Cardinals threw the most quarters coverage at the Texans that Stroud had faced all season. That led to some defensive success with three interceptions, even though the Texans still won 21-16. So the Broncos run a lot of what Stroud has been successful against while running very few quarters coverages that Houston's QB struggled against. 

That will make life difficult for the Bronco's defense, but they still find a way to steal a couple of extra possessions. One of the things that Joseph and the Broncos have been doing so well during their win streak is baiting throws, either resulting in an interception or an incomplete pass. 

With Denver's heavy usage of Cover 2 and Cover 3, it finds a way to do that and walk out with two interceptions in what would be a down game for the defense in total takeaways. 

Broncos Sack Stroud 5 Times (or More)

The Texans have done an alright job at keeping Stroud from being sacked. They're ranked 18th in the NFL, allowing 27 total sacks this season, but Pro Football Focus has the Texans ranked 10th in pass-blocking efficiency. It's pretty impressive when you factor in that seven players have played over 200 snaps on Houston's offensive line. 

The constant shakeups due to injury have not made life easy for the Texans, but they have found a way to remain mostly successful. However, that all can change with their recent injury to their offensive line. 

Tytus Howard was their starting left guard since Week 5, but he's now done for the season. Texans' left tackle Laremy Tunsil is dealing with an injury and has allowed four of his five sacks in their past four games of the season. 

As the Broncos open up the creative pass-rushing looks, they can create confusion on a line shuffled around so often. What will help the Broncos here is that Stroud leads the NFL in average time to throw at 2.89 seconds. 

If the Broncos can stick with receivers, the opportunities for sacks will be there, and defensive end Zach Allen should be able to take advantage of Howard being out of the lineup. 

Broncos Block a Punt or a Field Goal

I rarely make a bold prediction based on gut feeling, but this is an exception. There isn't any data that goes into this bold prediction. 

This feels like it will happen and play a vital role in a massive shift in momentum for the two teams. But watch for Denver to either block a punt or a field goal.