Broncos & DVOA: Advanced Metric Ranking & Playoff Probability Revealed

After seven weeks, the Denver Broncos are in first place in the AFC West. While it hasn't come easy, with the Broncos off to bad starts the past three weeks, the bottom line is they came away with wins in all three games and have shown they have the talent to make the playoffs.

Certainly, the Broncos need to address their issues with poor starts on offense, for which the best explanation is Sean Payton insisting on changing up personnel too much on early drives, then having to stop that when trailing, only to find out the offense runs better without those constant player switches.

Another reason for addressing the poor offensive starts is that, while the Broncos have a strong pass rush, they don't have a defense that can put the team on its shoulders. That's not to say the defense isn't good, because it is good — it's simply not an elite unit and, thus, the Broncos can't rely too much on it to win games.

The advanced metric DVOA gives us an idea about what the Broncos are like in the grand scheme of things, as well as what their opponents are like. Again, DVOA measures how efficient teams are in each aspect of the game.

Through seven weeks, the Broncos rank 14th overall at 3.8 percent. The Broncos rank 19th in offense (-2.7 percent), eighth overall in defense (-7.5 percent), and 20th overall in special teams (-1.0 percent). Again, DVOA is better for defense when it's negative.

Opponents Thus Far

As you can see, the Broncos have room for improvement on offense, while the defense is good but not elite. But how have Denver's opponents thus far measured up? Let's take a look.

• Tennessee Titans: 32nd overall (-40.5 percent), 32nd offense (-33.4 percent), 25th defense (8.8 percent), 11th special teams (1.6 percent).
• Indianapolis Colts: Third overall (39.5 percent), first offense (33.9 percent), 16th defense (-2.9 percent), eighth special teams (3.3 percent).
• Los Angeles Chargers: 23rd overall (-7.9 percent), 17th offense (-1.7 percent), 22nd defense (3.6 percent), 26th special teams (-2.7 percent).
• Cincinnati Bengals: 29th overall (-27.6 percent), 22nd offense (-6.3 percent), 32nd defense (20.2 percent), 21st special teams (-1.2 percent).
• Philadelphia Eagles: 11th overall (6.9 percent), 10th offense (7.1 percent), 17th defense (-1.7 percent), 24th special teams (-2.0 percent).
• New York Jets: 27th overall (-25.8 percent), 29th offense (-25.6 percent), 24th defense (7.5 percent), third special teams (7.4 percent).
• New York Giants: 24th overall (-8.2 percent), 25th offense (-9.2 percent), 23rd defense (3.7 percent), sixth special teams (4.7 percent).