Broncos' 'Ideal' First Two Draft Picks Revealed by NFL.com

We are approaching the NFL draft at lightspeed, and the Denver Broncos are trying to figure out who the best picks are to take their team to the next step. Who can the Broncos add in the draft to help them go from a playoff appearance to playoff wins?

Well, NFL.com's Chad Reuter believes he has found the best two picks for the Broncos in his recent article about the best first two picks for each team. For these two picks, Reuter had Michigan tight end Colston Loveland as the Broncos' first-rounder and then explosive Texas running back Jaydon Blue as the second-rounder. 

“The Broncos should trade up for Penn State's Tyler Warren if he falls into the middle third of the first round, but I have Warren going higher in this exercise — and Loveland's no mere consolation prize. His quick feet and reliable hands will be well-utilized by second-year pro Bo Nix, even with veteran TE Evan Engram in the mix," Reuter wrote.

Many wrote tight end off when the Broncos signed Engram, but it is still needed. He's older, on a two-year deal, and has severe injury issues.

The Broncos have been able to stay healthy, but has that been because of their medical staff or because they purged the roster of those players who are hurt often? The sample size is too small to say for sure one way or the other. 

Loveland is a receiving tight end who can work out of the slot. If the Broncos want to add another receiving weapon, he makes sense.

Ideally, Penn State's Tyler Warren would be the tight end they can land, as his skill set doesn’t sit on a collision course with Engram, like Loveland would. Warren has more of the Y-tight end, or in-line tight end skill set, compared to the F-tight end or big slot that Loveland and Engram are. 

Again, Engram's age, injury history, and contract don’t preclude Denver from taking Loveland, and the team can still find a way to use him while preparing him to take over for Engram in two years. The Broncos could also go with some bigger lineups, spread out defenses, and force mismatches by getting Engram and Loveland together on the field with Courtland Sutton and one of Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, or Marvin Mims Jr. as the two receivers. 

While the need isn’t as severe as it was, it is still there, and it would be a fine pick for the Broncos. The bigger issue is the second-round pick. 

At the Texas pro day, Blue was said to run a sub-4.3-second 40-yard dash, but it was later made clear that the reporting may have been agent-driven, as his actual time of 4.38 was released. That's still a great time, and Blue is an explosive runner. The issue falls with his ball security and the number of touches. 

Reuter used the agent-driven time for the 40 at the Texas Pro Day as part of his reasoning for Blue.

“Denver also has a clear need at running back following the departure of Javonte Williams, and Blue's sub-4.3 40 at his pro day preceded a visit with the Broncos," Reuter wrote.

The 4.38 time is still fine, but the more concerning aspect is his vertical jump, an explosion test. Blue is all speed, but he doesn’t have that instant explosion, and his game speed isn’t quite elite game speed to make up for it.  

When you look at NFL success in total collegiate touches, there is a sweet spot of 400-750, with hardly any success among running backs under the 400 mark. There is more success among those with the over, but the under is what matters with Blue, as he has 270 total touches, rushes, receptions, and returns in college.

When you look for those under 300, you’ll struggle to find a back to have a successful NFL career. You can find some flash in the pan success for a season before the back flames out.

However, is that worth a second-round pick, as Reuter believes here? That's before even getting into the ball security issues. 

For example, with touches, teams can look at various fumble rates. There is no upper limit, but the lower limit can range from one fumble every 80 touches to one over 100, and Blue comes in with one fumble every 30 touches.

That is historically bad. In the last 15 years, the lowest fumble rate for a running back drafted was one every 47.5 touches, and there hasn’t been a back drafted in the top 100 with a lower rate than one every 65 in that period. 

Blue has the second-worst fumble rate this year, but the other back is projected to go undrafted and may not even get a shot at an NFL roster. Again, is this worth a second-round pick?

You have to balance out the explosive playmaking ability and receiving ability, as Blue is one of the best receiving backs in this class, but how big of a role can he have in the NFL, and should he have it? 

The Broncos need running back help, and this is a highly talented running back room. So, while they should add, it shouldn’t be Blue with a second-round pick due to his two major issues.

There will be plenty of other options for the Broncos at running back, and Blue shouldn’t be an option until late day three, when the risk is worth the shot with the investment.