Broncos QB Bo Nix's Floor & Ceiling Revealed in Latest PFF Take

The Denver Broncos believe they have their franchise quarterback in Bo Nix. And the fans agree.

In what was a historic rookie year in many ways, Nix helped lead the Broncos back to the playoffs, which has instilled faith and hope in Nix, both inside and outside team headquarters. The question for Nix and the Broncos is, what's the next step? 

Part of what goes into the answer is defining Nix's ceiling. If Sean Payton and the Broncos can figure that out, they can determine what must be done to provide sufficient support for Nix to take the team to the next level, which is a playoff win, and hopefully, eventually, a Super Bowl championship.

Pro Football Focus' John Kosko took a stab at the answer by laying out each second-year NFL quarterback's floor and ceiling for 2025. Kosko named Drew Brees as Nix’s ceiling and Mac Jones as his floor.

“Nix surprised many with his play as a rookie, considering most analysts viewed him as a second-round prospect in last year’s draft. He proved to be a very capable starter who could execute Sean Payton’s offense. His 73.8 PFF passing grade in 2024 wasn’t spectacular by any means, but he displayed an ability to protect the football (1.8% turnover-worthy play rate) and his knack to avoid sacks carried over from college (12.9% pressure-to-sack rate)," Kosko wrote. "Nix doesn’t have Drew Brees-like accuracy — who does, really — but he’s accurate enough and avoids sacks, which are two Brees traits that helped him have a Hall-of-Fame career. Considering Nix’s low-end playmaking abilities, his floor is Mac Jones. In the end, though, he’s likely to never hit that floor and should be a capable long-term starter.”

There are many arguments to pick at Kosko's takes, but the notion that Brees is Nix’s ceiling has been a common one. Comparisons to the former New Orleans Saints' All-Pro surrounded Nix during the pre-draft process.

While there are similarities between the two quarterbacks, labeling Brees as his ceiling may be a bit ambitious. The key difference is that Brees was astronomically better with his ball placement and accuracy, and his lower-body technique was among the best, and Nix doesn't quite seem to have that in him. 

The bigger issue with what Kosko wrote deals with Nix's floor being Jones, and particularly what he said about Nix's "low-end playmaking abilities." Make no mistake about it, that's a complete insult to Nix, who has displayed good playmaking ability, both with his legs and arms. His ability to use his legs makes Nix significantly better than Jones and offers him a higher ceiling in the NFL.

There is a better floor comparison out there in Baker Mayfield. Again, this is the floor, and Nix should find himself somewhere between Mayfield as a floor and Brees as a ceiling. Nix has more in common with Mayfield than Jones, making the Tampa Bay quarterback a more accurate comparison. The most significant difference comes with their mobility. 

Again, Jones has been a statue in the NFL, and Nix has 11 more rushing yards in his lone season than Jones does in his four-year career, with almost three times as many games. Mayfield isn’t a running quarterback, but his mobility in the pocket and how he will use his legs to extend plays or even take off and pick up yards is similar to Nix.

Their arm talent is also comparable, though Mayfield's is slightly stronger. However, Nix seems to have better placement so far. 

Nix has the coaching and a solid roster around him to take the next step. If he ends up a Mayfield-level player, that could be enough for Denver, considering what's around him, to be competitive.

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If Nix ends up at that Brees level, this team can be a perennial Super Bowl contender. Only time will tell.