Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Massive Playoff Implications for TNF

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Jay Canale | Last updated Dec 11, 2025 12:25 PM ET

Week 15’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers isn’t shaping up to be the game fans of either team expected after their meeting in Week 1. That early-season contest came down to a thrilling last-second touchdown catch by the Buccaneers' rookie sensation, Emeka Egbuka. It wasn’t the finish Falcons fans hoped for, but it was an exciting start to the year for what felt like two teams on an upward trajectory.

Now, 14 weeks later, they look almost unrecognizable. Both teams have injury reports that run off the page, but even more impactful than that is the dramatic shift in how watching them actually feels.

Gone are the days of Mayfield magic and the fiery Buccaneers. The same goes for the Falcons, whose electric victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 6 feels like a different season.

Since their Week 9 bye, the Buccaneers are 1-5. Atlanta is in a similar spot, with a 2-7 record since they were off in Week 5.

However, despite the dreary state of both teams, this game still carries massive playoff implications.

Sep 7, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) makes a catch against Atlanta Falcons cornerback Mike Hughes (21) for a touchdown during the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images© Brett Davis-Imagn Images

According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, Tampa Bay currently has a 70% chance of reaching the playoffs. If they beat the Falcons, their chances increase to 80%, but if they lose, they slide to 53%.

Atlanta has been mathematically eliminated from the postseason, but they still have a chance to take away Tampa Bay’s control over their playoff hopes. If the Buccaneers lose to the Falcons on Thursday and the Panthers beat the Saints on Sunday, the Buccaneers would need to beat Carolina twice, in Week 16 and Week 18, to reach the postseason.

Despite their history, the 2025 Carolina Panthers aren't the team one should expect to beat twice. They've lost some frustrating games, but just two weeks ago, they defeated most analysts' top-ranked team in the league: the Los Angeles Rams.

The Buccaneers, on the other hand, just lost to the New Orleans Saints, who notched their third win of the season with that victory.

Thursday Night Football is likely to be a rough, mistake-filled game — but its impact on the postseason makes it too important to ignore.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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