Bucs Offensive Stat Projections For 2025

Baker Mayfield falls from his yardage and touchdown totals from 2024, but his efficiency metrics – yards per attempt and completion rate – both improve due to the consistency from being in the same offensive system for another year and enhanced chemistry with familiar targets like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. New offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard was the Bucs pass game coordinator last year and helped Tampa Bay top the league in third down conversions as Liam Coen’s right-hand man.

Also, notably I have Mayfield’s interception total improving. Two more things of note things of note.

First, I have Mayfield’s attempts dropping, allowing for both potential lost time due to possible injury as well as fewer drop backs per game, as the Bucs will be leading late in games more. And secondly, his touchdowns would still be the second-highest total of his career. Also, 34 touchdowns would have ranked sixth-most in the NFL last year, so that’s still quite good.

Mayfield isn’t just coming off of a career year passing the ball. He set career marks in rushing yards, yards/carry and tied his career high in rushing touchdowns. I have regression in all three of those marks, but they are still comfortably higher than his career averages.

RB Bucky Irving Tops 1,000 Yards Again

Carries – 217
Yards – 1,071
Yards Per Carry – 4.9
Touchdowns – 12
MTF Rate – 28%
Explosive Runs – 11.7%
Receptions – 49
Receiving Yards – 407
Receiving TD – 0

Running back is a grueling position. Even more so for a back like Bucky Irving, who is sub-200 pounds. As such, despite a more concrete starting role as he enters his second season, I only have Irving with marginally more carries than 2024. But he still eclipses 1,000 yards and becomes just the third back in Bucs history to do that in two consecutive seasons.

And I have Irving projected for more touchdowns than last year with slightly more receiving production.

I have Irving’s yards per carry down slightly from 5.4 last year to just under 5.0 this season (4.9 avg.). Since 2020, only one back has averaged over 5.0 in two consecutive seasons and that was Nick Chubb. He did it twice in Cleveland in 2020 and 2021 and then in 2021 and 2022.

RB Rachaad White Runs For More Yards In His Contract Year

Carries – 164
Yards – 707
Yards Per Carry – 4.3
Touchdowns – 4
MTF Rate – 15%
Explosive Runs – 7.9%
Receptions – 55
Receiving Yards – 427
Receiving TDs – 4

Rachaad White sees a slight improvement in efficiency and volume from 2024, due to a shift in his zone to gap ratio and slightly more carries filling in for Bucky Irving, who may miss some time due to injury. White also ticks up slightly in receptions and receiving yards with a small reduction in receiving touchdowns.

Irving and White combine for 1,778 rushing yards, 834 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns in Tampa Bay. The duo teamed up to post 1,735 rushing yards, 785 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns last year.

WR Mike Evans Makes History With 12th Straight 1,000-Yard Season

Routes – 493
Targets – 115
Receptions – 75
Receiving Yards – 1,104
Receiving Yards Average – 14.7
Receiving TDs – 11
Yards/route run – 2.24

I have Mike Evans continuing his 1k yards streak. This time he won’t need the last play of the season to make it happen because I have his route run ticking up with less lost games due to injury. I also have his yards per reception improving from 2024 as he regains some of his form in the deep part of the field while still excelling in the intermediate area.

WR Chris Godwin Returns From Injury With A Productive Season

Routes – 407
Targets – 94
Receptions – 70
Receiving Yards – 799
Receiving Yards Average – 11.4
Receiving TDs – 4
Yards/route run – 1.96

I’m projecting Chris Godwin to not return to action from his ankle injury and play until around Week 6. Impressively, over 12 games I still project him for 94 targets, an almost 75% catch rate and just under 800 yards. We’ll see if Godwin can not only return sooner than I expect, but also come closer to a 1,000-yard season in the process. It’s hard to bet against Godwin give his track record for attacking rehab.

WR Emeka Egbuka Stars As The Team’s First-Round Pick

Routes – 410
Targets – 66
Receptions – 46
Receiving Yards – 568
Receiving Yards Average – 12.4
Receiving TDs – 3
Yards/route run – 1.38

This will be one of the more controversial projections, as many fans expect Jalen McMillan to still be the third-most targeted receiver coming off a strong end to his rookie season. I have Emeka Egbuka, the team’s first-round pick, with about 60% more routes due to two factors.

One, he is the more natural fit to fill in for Chris Godwin in the slot until he is ready to return from his ankle injury. Two, Egbuka has more positional versatility allowing him to fill in for Evans, Godwin and McMillan when they need breathers. Add in the investment the Bucs made in him via a first-round pick, and I believe he will be the more targeted option.

WR Jalen McMillan Is Still A Touchdown Machine For The Bucs

Routes – 257
Targets – 28
Receptions – 20
Receiving Yards – 247
Receiving Yards Average – 12.5
Receiving TDs – 6
Yards/route run – 0.96

Jalen McMillan’s stat line is a bit disappointing in comparison to his 2024 due to fewer targets – and less catches and yards as a result. But he is the best bet outside of Mike Evans to get some extra touchdowns via deep shots. The six touchdowns I have him projected for are second-most on the team behind Evans and I have him improving his catch rate from 63% in 2024 to 70% in 2025.

TE Cade Otton Is Still A Reliable Weapon For Baker Mayfield

Routes – 498
Targets – 75
Receptions – 52
Receiving Yards – 516
Receiving Yards Average – 9.9
Receiving TDs – 4
Yards/route run – 1.04

Cade Otton’s line is not very dissimilar to his most recent seasons. His receptions, yards, and yards per route run projections would all rank second in his career, while his four touchdowns would tie his 2024 and 2023 totals.