
The Bucs offensive inconsistency this year can be tied back to several factors. Perhaps none are quite as important as their performance in the red zone. After earning a spot inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, whether that be by long offensive drive, or sudden turnover generated by the defense, the payoff of 7 points is critical to succeeding as an NFL offense.
But Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled to get that payoff this year, converting just 50% of their 36 red zone appearances into touchdowns this year, placing them 25th in the league in such efficiency. Last year they were much better at finishing drives, ranking 4th in red zone efficiency with a 67% touchdown rate. Even a small difference of six of their trips this year turning from field goals to touchdowns – a 24-point difference in total points – would represent a noticeable difference in their overall scoring efficiency, vaulting them from 16th in points per game (23.3) to tied with Kansas City for 9th (25.4).
The red zone performance is one that is front of mind for Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. But he was encouraged by his unit’s performance in week 12 against the Cardinals when asked about the subject this week.
“Yeah, definitely, the last Saints game did not go how we planned in the low red [zone] for sure. But, I think you saw a little bit of it last week where Bucky [Irving] was able to score from the – what was it, 13- [or] 14-yard line? We get down there again and we just weren’t able to convert on that third down, which was unfortunate. Then, with Tristan [Wirfs]’s touchdown, [then] I think the last one we kneeled down in the red area, so you get that knock…So at the end of the day, we want to get those closer too, because that’s a tough down.
“On the one that we threw to Chris [Godwin Jr.] where it’s third-and-8 from the eight[-yard line], it’s one of the toughest downs in football because there’s no depth to the field…Are they going to blitz it, not blitz it? Really, some of the early-down production to be able to get that thing to third-and-2 or third-and-1, where some of the plays like Tristan’s or some of the low-red [zone] either runs or passes could show up and not have that far to go.”
The Bucs made it inside the Cardinals’ 20-yard time four times in week 12. The final time was when Tampa Bay took over at the Cardinals’ 16-yard line at the end of the game and they kneeled out for the victory. But on the previous three opportunities the Bucs took advantage, twice punching the ball in for touchdowns and adding a field goal on the third.
For all the fanfare rookie wide receivers Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson have deservedly earned, they are still working to develop chemistry with Baker Mayfield. And as with most rookies, both still make mistakes with route depths, option choices and just generally being in the right spot at the right time. Both have also struggled with press coverage. Egbuka has also had troubles separating in man coverage.
Chris Godwin Jr.’s strong, physical frame helps him push through jams and box out defenders on shorter routes in the red zone. And with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, both skilled man beaters, practicing this week and nearing returns reinforcements are on the way. Evans had almost 350 yards and five touchdowns against man coverage last year according to Sumer Sports. McMillan averaged 17.5 yards per reception and 2.78 EPA/target. Godwin had a catch rate over 72%.
This should make the Bucs more dynamic and multiple in the redzone (where man coverage is more prevalent) leading to more touchdowns and more points. Add in a play caller finding his footing in that area of the field and there is a recipe for a brighter future for the Bucs offense.
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