Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots Meet for a Cold Front Clash

Injury Report

The Week 5 NFL Injury Report shows the Bills are dealing with several injuries on defense and special teams.  On the other hand, they definitely have their own problems on the defensive side of the ball.  Currently, the Patriots have four defensive players listed as questionable, including defensive tackle Milton Williams (ankle), cornerback Carlton Davis (illness), and linebackers K’Lavon Chaisson (knee) and Jalani Tavai (calf). The Bills will be without linebacker Dorian Williams (knee) and cornerback Dorian Strong (neck). Punter Cameron Johnston lands on injured reserve after a lower leg injury caused by a roughing incident against the Saints. Left tackle Spencer Brown (calf), linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral), and defensive tackles Ed Oliver (ankle) and T.J. Sanders (knee) are all questionable.

Key to Victory #1:  Pressure Patriots QB Drake Maye

Defensively, the Buffalo Bills must pressure Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. This means Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa must step up. The Bills have several injuries on the interior defensive line and at linebacker. Williams is out after covering for Milano, who will likely play but is still dealing with his pectoral injury. Buffalo usually plays a two-high look. Still, they may need to add fire zone blitzes with Terrel Bernard and vary coverages to disrupt Maye.

Key to Victory #2:  Force the Patriots to Dink and Dunk

Mixing in a variety of cover 4, 6, and 3 when bringing pressure will give the Bills the advantage to keep a vertical cap on the Patriots’ passing offense.  Those coverages, in addition to added pressure from their pass rush, will force Maye to either force passes into coverages down the field or check down to his weapons.  While the Patriots have several playmakers on offense, Stefon Diggs is their only legitimate deep threat. If Buffalo can keep the ball out of his hands, then the Patriots’ offense will be hamstrung.

Key to Victory #3:  Bills Need to Win the Line of Scrimmage

Offensively, the Buffalo Bills’ offensive line and running back James Cook should have a big game against the Patriots’ defensive front seven.  So far this season, the Patriots have struggled to stop opposing offenses, and the Bills’ ability to run and pass the ball effectively should pose a challenge for the Patriots’ defense to manage.  On the other hand, the Patriots have struggled with fumbles in the running game, and forcing turnovers is an area where the Bills’ defense excels.  Ultimately, forcing turnovers may be the only answer the Bills defense has against New England’s running game, given the Bills’ deficiencies in stopping the run.  Stopping the run may be an even more difficult task, given the several injuries along their interior defensive line and linebackers.

Key to Victory #4:  Execute on Special Teams

Another area where the Bills have had to deal with injuries is with their special teams units.  Since the end of the training camp, the Bills have had kicker Tyler Bass on the injured list.  Veteran kicker Matt Prater has excelled as the Bills’ kicker while Bass has been dealing with his hip injury.  In addition, the Bills have had to make adjustments at the punter position.  Early this season, the Buffalo Bills signed former Pittsburgh Steelers punter Cameron Johnston.  Johnson has had a great season so far, but last week the New Orleans Saints ran into Johnston, re-aggravating a past injury to his ankle.  Consequently, Johnston is now on the Bills’ injured list and has been replaced by the recently signed punter Mitch Wishnowsky.

Key to Victory #5:  Buffalo Needs to Start Fast on Offense

Without a doubt, the Buffalo Bills have excelled on the offensive side of the ball with quarterback Josh Allen leading the way.  In addition, Cook and tight end Dalton Kincaid have helped Allen dominate with an outstanding, balanced offense.  The one downside to the Bills’ success on offense has been their relatively slow starts in the first half, while the Bills have to put games away in the second half.  If Buffalo waits until the second half this week, it may find itself in a dogfight going into the second half.  On the other hand, if the Bills have an explosive start to the game, they can minimize the Patriots’ ability to run the ball.  If they fail to get that fast start, then they will need to take care of the ball in the passing and running game.

Game Prediction:

Buffalo Bills 31, New England Patriots 24