Burning Questions for Falcons Against Washington Commanders

CAN OFFENSE, MICHAEL PENIX JR. FIND ITS LEGS AFTER RECENT STRUGGLES?

The struggles of the Falcons’ offense took center-stage this week after its disastrous Week 3 performance in Charlotte. The unit has scored just one touchdown in its last two games – and that came on a play where the Vikings actively allowed the Falcons to score. 

Aside from Bijan Robinson, it feels like just about everyone on this offense is struggling, but it starts with the quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. is only starting his seventh professional game, but he will be under immense pressure to find his footing against a tough Commanders’ pass rush. 

Penix has just one touchdown pass on the season, which came on a screen to Bijan Robinson and is the fewest of any quarterback who has started three games. His passing yards (605) are 19th in the NFL, his completion percentage (58.6%) is 29th, and his quarterback rating (71.3) is 28th. The Falcons rank dead last in deep passing rate (4%, according to PFF) and Penix is just 1-of-17 with an interception on passes of 15+ yards this season.

There have already been moves at Flowery Branch in response to the struggles, and wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard was relieved of his duties on Monday. Additionally, head coach Raheem Morris opted to move offensive coordinator Zac Robinson from the coach’s box down to the sideline. 

The Falcons are struggling to score points, coming in at 31st in the NFL in points per game (14.0). The entire unit, but the quarterback in particular, will need to find their legs as soon as possible if they want to avoid an early-season losing streak. 

HOW WILL THE FALCONS OFFENSIVE LINE HOLD UP?

The Falcons’ offensive line will be tasked with slowing down several talented defenders on this Commander defense. This unit is littered with vetern playmakers, highlighted by linebacker Bobby Wagner, defensive lineman Daron Payne, and newly added defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw.

The addition of Kinlaw has given Payne more freedom as a rusher, and their entire unit is getting more pressure than last season. According to NextGenStats, the Commanders have generated a league-high 50.4% pressure rate this season and are one of two teams (Broncos) that have pressured opponent quarterbacks on over half of their dropbacks. 

When generating pressure, the Commanders have allowed the second-lowest completion percentage (36.4%) and third-lowest dropback success rate (22.8%).

Corralling that pressure will prove critical. Michael Penix Jr. has posted a league-low -15.5% completion percentage over expected when pressured, completing just 13 of 29 attempts (44.8%, 11th-lowest) for 173 yards and one touchdown.

Fortunately, the Falcons feature one of the more consistent offensive lines in the NFL. This group, particularly along the interior, will be tested on Sunday. 

CAN DEE ALFORD CONTINUE HIS STRONG RUN?

Star cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. will miss his second consecutive game on Sunday with a hamstring injury. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said he is optimistic that Terrell could return after the bye week, but that won’t help them much against the Commanders. 

What will help them is if Dee Alford can continue his strong run of play this week. He stepped in against the Vikings and again on Sunday, playing all but one snap between both games. 

The results from both have been glowing. 

"I thought he did an excellent job, to tell you the truth," Jeff Ulbrich said. "I thought he played at a really high level.

"And I know it's hard to find brightness in a 30-nothing game, but if there were bright spots, it would have been those two [Alford and Mike Hughes]. Dee, a guy that, he gives up, whatever it is, seven inches to No. 4 [Tetairoa McMillan], if not more. The times he was targeted, he battled. He got the ball out. I was extremely happy with the way Dee played."

Through both games, Alford has been targeted six times, but has allowed just one reception for nine yards and a quarterback rating of 39.6 when targeted.

Fortunately for the Falcons, the Commanders will without star wide receiver Terry McLaurin in this game. This passing attack is still very dangerous. They will feature former All-Pro wideout Deebo Samuel, steady veteran tight end Zach Ertz, and second-year player Luke McCaffrey stepped up last week and secured a 43-yard touchdown against the Raiders. 

CAN THIS DEFENSE CARRY THE LOAD AGAINST A FORMER QUARTERBACK?

The Falcons defense has been one of the most improved units in the entire NFL, but they will have a tough test against a talented Washington Commanders offense. As mentioned in the last section, they will be without wideout Terry McLaurin, but they will also be missing the reigning Rookie of the Year in Jayden Daniels because of a knee injury. 

In his place, former Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota will step in for his second straight start. 

Against the Raiders, Mariota led this offense to a 400-yard, 41-point performance in the win. The veteran thrived in their quick passing game and was a constant threat to the Las Vegas defense with his legs. Through his nine quarters, Mariota has completed 48 of 62 passes (77.4%) for 573 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. He has also run the ball 22 times for 130 yards. 

Stopping the run will be very important for this unit. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has stepped into the starting running back role, but Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols will also get involved. They combined for 143 yards and two touchdowns last week, and the Falcons will need to keep a handle on them in this game. 

“Whoever it is, they all run hard, and they're all good at breaking tackles and getting extra yardage,” Jeff Ulbrich said. “They all have a tenacity about them where they push piles and they get leaky yards too if you don't get a lot of hats on them and get population to the ball.”

Led by Ulbrich, this Falcons defense has taken on new life. Despite being credited in giving up 30 points against the Panthers, it still ranks as the 13th scoring defense in the league. They are 2nd in yards allowed (227.3), 5th in EPA/play and EPA/pass, 6th in team sack rate, and 8th in pressure rate.

As a Falcon, Mariota had a forgettable 2022 campaign. He threw for 2,219 yards, 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions while going 5-8 in 13 starts before being benched for Desmond Ridder. 

ARE THE KICKING, SPECIAL TEAMS ISSUES FINALLY BEHIND THIS TEAM?

The Falcons held a kicking competition for the third week in a row at Flowery Branch after newly signed kicker Parker Romo missed both of his attempts last Sunday in Carolina. This came directly on the heels of his 5-for-5 performance in Minnesota and the subsequent release of veteran Younghoe Koo. 

Raheem Morris is determined to get this position figured out and opted to bring in more bodies on the practice squad to battle it out. Rookie Ben Sauls was that guy, but he was unable to win the subsequent kicking competition. 

Morris confirmed on Friday that Romo will be the starting kicker on Sunday against Washington, but it is hard to imagine they will have much patience if he misses any more kicks. 

In the return game, the Falcons will be eager anticipating the return of punt- and kick-return specialist Jamal Agnew. Atlanta struggled with their return game against Carolina and it cost them field position far too ofter. The return of Agnew should alleviate some of those issues. 

CAN THE FALCONS SNAP A FOUR-GAME SKID TO THE COMMANDERS?

The Falcons and Commanders have faced off in each of the last four seasons, with Washington winning all four games by one score or less. 

Their Week 17 primetime matchup was the first road start for then rookie Michael Penix Jr., and it came down to the wire. The rookie led the Falcons on a game-tying touchdown drive as time was winding down, but the Commanders started overtime period with the ball and Atlanta never got a chance on offense. 

Atlanta will come into this game as a 2.5-point home favorite, but this feels like a critical game for this team ahead of the bye week. With Tampa off to a hot 3-0 start, every game will be important as the Falcons look to keep pace in the division.