There is no more hallowed pastime for NFL fans than overreacting to one game of data after Week 1 of the season. Rookies who struggled are busts, veterans who struggled are washed. Breakout superstars are crowned, coaches are blasted on the hot seat, and careers are declared revived after a surprise five-catch performance.

It’s not my place to end this tradition, but I will preach some caution and try and look at the bigger picture. I took five of the most interesting overreactions to Week 1’s action and gave my thoughts, trying to parse out whether this is a sustainable trend or a flash in the pan.

Without further ado, let’s examine some overreactions:

Bears QB Caleb Williams Is A Bust

The last game of the opening week was also maybe the weirdest. It was a great Monday night game with some fantastic narratives: Bears QB Caleb Williams entering his second season, now paired with new HC Ben Johnson, vs. the Vikings and QB J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season with a meniscus injury.

On the Bears’ first drive of the game, Williams marched his team down the field with ease and scored a touchdown. He completed his first 10 passes and was having a stellar start to the game, only to stall out after that. Chicago’s offense scored a mere three points between the opening drive and garbage time. The entire unit was stuck in mud: the running game couldn’t get going, receivers weren’t getting open, and Williams missed them when they did.

When I was watching the broadcast live, I didn’t think Williams looked comfortable at all. There was some pressure, but he held onto the ball forever, waiting for something to open up. There were clearly reads he was supposed to be making faster that he wasn’t, leading to check-downs and unnecessary mistakes. On the plus side, Williams kept the ball out of harm’s way and didn’t do anything stupid trying to be a hero, but at a certain point, you need to hit your open receivers, especially when the play is drawn up for you to do so quickly.

Afterwards, I watched back the All-22 footage, and it paints Williams in an even worse light. There were opportunities to attack downfield that he either didn’t see or didn’t trust, but he needed to make those throws to keep the offense on schedule. On top of that, his ball placement was an issue: there were times when he put his receivers in worse positions by where he threw the ball, limiting yards after the catch or their ability to complete it. One screen attempt was particularly bad — the pass was complete, but it took the receiver backwards and the Bears failed to convert on third down.

Johnson is considered one of the top offensive minds in football. He ran a brilliantly efficient offense in Detroit with QB Jared Goff, one predicated on timing and precision. Goff had to make quick reads and get the ball out on time, and he was excellent doing that. The Lions had one of the best offenses in the sport over the last few years.

But Williams isn’t that kind of quarterback, at least not yet. He’s far better than Goff out of structure, but he’s not yet able to direct a quick-game offense. The hope was that Johnson would get the best out of Williams, and he still might. There’s a long way to go. But the season opener showed the potential flaw in this pairing.

Now, all that said: I’m not ready at all to give up on Williams. Not just because this is so early in his career and the season, but because there were still things I liked from the tape against the Vikings. His release is so smooth and so fast, and he can make throws few others can. When he’s clicking and in rhythm, it’s a thing of beauty. Early in the game, he was hitting those timing routes and taking downfield shots.

It might take some time, but I fully expect a Caleb Williams breakout is on the way.

Verdict: Selling

The Dolphins Are On The Brink Of Falling Apart

You could not have scripted a worse start to the season for the Dolphins. After an offseason filled with questions and bad vibes, Miami got absolutely waxed by the Colts, going down 30-0 before scoring a late touchdown to make the final score 33-8.

On defense, a thin secondary couldn’t stop the Indianapolis receivers from getting anything they wanted. The Colts had a painfully efficient rushing attack, bulldozing Miami’s line on every play. Colts QB Daniel Jones was comfortable and in control behind his offensive line, picking apart the Dolphins’ defense repeatedly.

But the offense was the real issue. The usually-reliable QB Tua Tagovailoa missed throws, some badly, leading to turnovers. He overshot WR Tyreek Hill on a deep crosser for an easy interception by the safety, and didn’t see Colts ED Laiatu Latu dropping into coverage when he threw it right to him.

The running game produced a mere 78 yards, most of which came on the late touchdown drive with the game already well out of reach. Miami’s offensive line, a problem spot everyone pointed out, was bad. Tagovailoa was under constant pressure and their running backs had no room to operate.

If it was just the roster concerns, I wouldn’t be panicking. The offensive line and secondary are catastrophically bad, but Tagovailoa has had success in the past. This is a good defensive front, despite their showing on Sunday, and the WR duo of Hill and Jaylen Waddle remains one of the top pairings in the sport.

This was a beatdown against a wild card-caliber opponent, so no matter what it wouldn’t look good coming away from it. But it’s more than just the results on the field. During training camp, the reports coming out of the Dolphins’ joint practices with the Bears, Lions, and Jaguars were how poorly they were playing. In all three joint practices, Miami was dominated in the trenches, and it didn’t sound like they were rebounding well from the adversity.

After the Colts game, Dolphins ED Bradley Chubb said guys were just “freelancing” it out there on defense, doing whatever they wanted, and that they need to play as a unit. That’s a scathing indictment on the coaching staff, and the seats are getting hotter for HC Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier.

The Dolphins have a critically important game in Week 2 against the Patriots. It’s at home, against a team that they are more talented than on paper. If they lose this game, this season could spiral into a winless streak and early firings very quickly. Even if they win, though, I don’t see this staff surviving the season, not with this roster and the expectations they once had.

Verdict: Buying

The Ravens Can’t Win A Close Game When It Matters

After they lost on a walk-off field goal in one of the greatest regular season football games of all time, it felt like deja vu with the Ravens. They blew a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Bills, losing 41-40 in Buffalo.

After the game, the discourse was in part about how this was yet another blown lead by the Ravens. Baltimore has lost eight games since the start of 2022 where they held a double-digit lead in the second half, per Pro Football Reference. Those are backbreaking losses, and they keep happening in the season’s biggest moments against their best opponents.

What makes this such a peculiar trend is that you’d expect this Ravens team to be excellent at salting games away. They have the biggest, best running back in the game in Derrick Henry, a tank who’s practically impossible to tackle in short-yardage situations. Plus they have QB Lamar Jackson, the best rushing quarterback we’ve seen in the NFL since at least Michael Vick. Between the two of them and a veteran offensive line, the Ravens’ four-minutes offense should be elite.

For some reason, it isn’t. Baltimore seemingly can’t convert these leads into wins as consistently as some other team. However, end of game success tends to be fairly random. Certainly, some teams, coaches, and quarterbacks are better at it than others. But this high-flying Ravens offense and Super Bowl-winning HC John Harbaugh aren’t all of sudden terrible at it.

Eventually, the ball will bounce their way. It’s true the Ravens haven’t been to a Super Bowl with Jackson, who’s won two MVPs. But Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has been to the Super Bowl in five of his seven seasons as the starter. That probably has more to do with it than the Ravens being incapable of winning big games.

Verdict: Selling

The Steelers and Jets Have Legit Offenses

In what was expected to be a low-scoring slugfest, the Steelers and Jets instead engaged in a shootout, one that Pittsburgh eventually won 34-32. The two offenses combined for 665 total yards, 41 first downs, and eight touchdowns.

These were expected to be two of the slowest offenses in the league, with a heavy focus on rushing and churning out tough yards. The Steelers, in particular, aired it out. QB Aaron Rodgers threw 30 passes (and took four sacks), while the team as a whole had 20 rushing attempts. The Jets were a focused ground game team with 39 rushing attempts to QB Justin Fields’ 22 passes. But the offense was clicking, using tempo and creative playcalling to move the ball efficiently and keep things humming.

Fans have proclaimed Rodgers “back” and Fields “unlocked.” But let’s slow down a minute and examine what happened a little more closely. Rodgers was productive, but ultimately I didn’t see much difference between this performance and what he put on tape last year in New York. Three of his four touchdown passes were schemed up and wide open, easy throws. There’s nothing wrong with that, of course, but it’s not like he was slinging it all over the yard. He hit some creative touchdowns, took some sacks under pressure, and threw for under 250 yards. That’s pretty consistent with who he’s been in recent years.

I have more confidence that Fields can replicate this performance, but I’m still cautious. New York got him on the move and used his legs to open up the passing game, creating some good high-low action and half-field reads that leveraged Fields’ strengths. Still, we’ve seen Fields have good games before and struggle to sustain a consistent offense over the course of the season.

I’m not saying these offenses can’t be good this year, but I am pumping the brakes a little bit. For now, at least.

Verdict: Selling

Micah Parsons Transforms The Packers Into Real Contenders

Right when the news broke that the Cowboys were trading ED Micah Parsons to the Packers for two first-round picks and DT Kenny Clark, many pundits thought this took the Packers from good to great, from a solid playoff team to a true Super Bowl contender.

This viewpoint was backed up on the field in Week 1, with Green Bay shellacking the NFC’s No. 1 seed last year in the Lions. It was a total beatdown, and Parsons made his presence felt. He’s dealing with a back injury and only played about half the defensive snaps, but even still he had a sack and another quarterback hit, causing absolute havoc in the backfield on practically every play he was out there for.

His presence was felt immediately. EDs Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness were teeing off in one-on-one matchups when Detroit slid extra protection towards Parsons. He lined up inside on some third down, creating immediate interior disruption. The Lions have a veteran tackle duo in Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker, yet they were hounded by Parsons all afternoon.

It’s more than just Parsons, though. QB Jordan Love being healthy is huge for this team. Adding WR Matthew Golden gives them an element this offense didn’t have before. Guys on defense are energized and ready to go. This Packers team is for real.

Verdict: Buying