Can Cal Solve Its Problem of Losing Close Games?

Cal coach Justin Wilcox knew the question was coming, and it came several times during Tuesday’s ACC media day in Charlotte, North Carolina:

How does Cal fix the problem of being unable to win close games? That was the Bears’ downfall in 2024. Cal was 2-5 in games decided by one score, and in one agonizing stretch the Bears lost four games in row by a combined margin of nine points. Cal was out of contention in the closing minutes in only one of its 13 games last season, the 38-6 loss against SMU.

It doesn’t take a math major to know that if the Bears had gone 5-2 instead of 2-5 in those close game, they would have finished with a 9-3 regular-season record instead of 6-6, and Wilcox would be toasted instead of roasted.

And it wasn't just 2024. Cal is 7-19 in one-score game over the past five seasons and did not have a winning record in those games in any of those five seasons.

Before we get into Wilcox’s long answer to that question, two Wilcox snippets of his reponse are worth noting.

Snippet No. 1: “Either create bigger margins or when those margins are small, you got to be better in those critical moments.”

Indeed if you’re ahead by three touchdowns with two minutes left, you don’t need to worry about those close losses. Which leads to the other snippet:

Snippet No. 2: “The more talent you have, the bigger the margins get.”

In other words, if you have far more talent than the opponent, you typically have a lot more room for error and are less likely to be faced with a close game. However, Cal’s talent level on its 2025 roster is unlikely to create a big margin, so the Bears will need to stay close and win a high percentage of their close games to have a successful season.

Wilcox is keenly aware of the close-game shortcomings, and said, “After the season I spent a lot of time thinking about that.”

So here is Wilcox’s long answer to the big question: How can Cal fix the shortcomings in close games after going 2-5 in one-score games last season:

“You didn’t need to remind me but I know the stat. Some difficult, frustrating losses. We had plenty of opportunities to win those games, and I wish it was as simple as we need to do this one drill or address this one position or fix this one problem.

“It’s not that simple. It’s everything. It’s coaching; it’s schematics; what are we going to do better? It’s offseason programing; what are we going to do better? It’s food. It’s our class schedule, so we have the best situation to teach and practice our players. It’s admissions and recruitment and talent acquisition and talent retention. It’s support from every level of our institution. It’s sports med.

“I mean I could name 50 things that could help us. Thankfully coach [Ron] Rivera [Cal’s football general manager] and our chancellor [Rich Lyons] have been very, very supportive and things that we can do to make the program better because ultimately one play in the game. It’s one more defensive stop. It’s another score in the red zone, a touchdown, and maybe a field goal that we connect on, but any one of those 50 things.

“We all got to be pulling in the same direction, so when those moments come up tht we are able to capitalize on them and win those games. And the other thing you can do to solve for that is not be in so many close games, and score more points, and get tem off the field more often. Either create bigger margins, or when those margins are small, you got to be better in those critical moments.”

Comment: With the enormous turnover Cal has had in its roster from last season, it’s difficult to predict how successful the Bears will be this season.  But it certainly appears that the Bears are not going to have significant talent superiority over many opponents this season. Therefore, Cal will have to stay close and win those close games to be happy with the results.

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