Can the Dallas Cowboys Offense Scheme Its Way Into Super Bowl Contention?

The Dallas Cowboys head into the bye week 6-2 and feeling good about what they have in all three phases of the game. The Cowboys’ offense has taken off since Dak Prescott returned from his thumb injury, and the defense remains one of the best in the NFL. But could this finally be the year Dallas sees an NFC Conference Championship? Or should their sights be set even higher?

As expected in an offseason that saw a talent migration from the NFC to the AFC, the NFC has been an utter disappointment. The Packers and Buccaneers are spiraling, and the NFC West has been battling to stay afloat, with the Seahawks surprisingly taking hold of the division early on.

One season ago, Dallas had the highest team DVOA in the NFL. They ranked sixth in offensive DVOA, second on defense, and sixth in special teams. None of it mattered because the offense sputtered late in the season, including their playoff game against the 49ers.

But even with lesser talent at wide receiver, could the Cowboys’ offense be just as good as they were a season ago?

Cowboys Flip Switch on Offense

Prescott has never seen more than 28% of his dropbacks come off play-action. And while his injury was a net loss in that Dallas couldn’t control their own destiny by beating the Eagles, Kellen Moore was forced to change how he attacked defenses.

To be honest, it didn’t work with Cooper Rush. He is too limited to consistently pick apart defenses and sustain drives, which is an unfortunate reality for a Cowboys team lacking a big-play threat in the passing game.

Dallas was lucky enough to see Tony Pollard explode a few times in the run game, but their defense led them to a 4-1 record with the backup.

Rush’s play-action rate wasn’t unique. In fact, it was similar to how Prescott’s has been. But his efficiency was markedly better when a run fake was involved.

More Play-Action

Moore has adjusted the offense to find that efficiency with the better quarterback under center. Prescott is using play-action on 36.8% of his dropbacks this season, and he’s seen some outstanding production in those looks.

Prescott isn’t one of the league’s best quarterbacks in the same way most of the league’s elites are. He’s not among the elite because he doesn’t possess the out-of-structure playmaking ability or the howitzer that Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have. He’s old school.

Prescott is not Drew Brees, but he’s probably the closest thing we’ll see to Brees in this generation. Prescott is lethal pre and post-snap. His footwork is fantastic in the play-action dropback and rollout game, but it’s his ability to layer throws that make the play fake so dangerous.

All it takes is a momentary freeze from the linebackers for him to attack windows in the intermediate areas of the field. For too long, Moore has tried scheming check releases with tight ends and backs to occupy linebackers. But it led to Prescott needing to checkdown to those options too often, as linebackers forced his hand by gaining depth and coming forward to make tackles.

Prescott is 21 of 30 for 236 yards and three TDs utilizing play-action so far in his three games. And while it’s been proved countless times that play-action success isn’t dependent upon rushing success, the fact Dallas is sixth in rushing EPA and eighth in success rate certainly can’t hurt their cause.

Playing to Personnel Strengths

Last season, the NFL ran 13 plays out of 03 personnel (zero RBs, three TEs). That’s the number for all 32 teams for the entire 2021 season. There were 36,332 offensive plays run last season.

Against the Bears, the Cowboys ran it on six straight plays, and they were “successful” on five of them. Dallas struck gold in the offseason with rookie TEs Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot. In Week 8, they activated Sean McKeon as well.

As a quarterback, it’s never a bad thing to see three second-level defenders wearing numbers in the 50s. That revelation is even more palatable when you have the personnel on the field to spread out and attack those players in coverage.

Dallas didn’t do anything revolutionary out of this personnel. The above video is a simple spot concept with four weapons to one side of the field (four strong). CeeDee Lamb should probably see more backfield snaps anyways.

It’s a good way to find advantageous matchups against linebackers. Additionally, we’ve seen Lamb is pretty good when handed the ball in the backfield.

This grouping is obviously a novelty, but with the lack of high-end ability in the receiving corps, finding ways to keep defenses in heavy personnel groupings while spreading them thin in coverage is a decent tactic to exploit moving forward.

Red-Zone Revelations

Dallas has curiously avoided motion at the snap for a long time. In a sense, it makes sense. Prescott is a thinker. Why would he want the defensive picture to potentially change right before the snap of the ball? We saw a similar lack of motion with Aaron Rodgers for years with Mike McCarthy.

But it can be a huge help.

Motion at the Snap

Personally, I’d like to see Michael Gallup run an out route here, but I won’t complain too much. The witch release doesn’t fool the defense here like it sometimes does, but the free release and ability to get a safety widened out playing the role of outside CB in Cover 3 is a win for Dallas, and probably something Matt Eberflus should look into changing.

Instead of sliding the safety out, it makes more sense to back off Jaylon Johnson as Lamb goes in motion, allowing Jaquan Brisker to play forward in a Cover 3 Sky.

But this is a good lesson for Dallas. The motion put a defender in a somewhat foreign position, and the Cowboys were able to take advantage.

Using Prescott’s Legs

Nobody will confuse Prescott for Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, or Josh Allen. However, Prescott possesses more than enough athleticism to be a weapon in the red zone. Why play 10-on-11 when that 11th player can carry the ball too?

Moore doesn’t need to consistently design rushes for Prescott in the red zone. He simply needs to make sure the defense accounts for Prescott. We’ve seen Moore use his QB in short-yardage situations. He brings out the speed option every now and then, and it’s largely been successful.

But things get more difficult in the red zone and even more so in the low red zone. Passing windows become condensed, and third-level defenders are closer to the line of scrimmage and can fit the run easier.

The motion from Lamb was an interesting wrinkle. I’d expect to see a pop pass to him in the future to get the ball to the edge quickly, with the split-zone read action in front of it. Defenses are about answering offensive questions. When an offense can ask multiple questions from one look, it creates doubt. And in a game of inches, that’s all an offense needs.

Doing It Against Better Competition

We see good offenses dominate bad defenses all the time. That’s what the Cowboys’ offense has done the past two weeks. But offenses like Kansas City find ways to get on unstoppable rolls even against the best defenses in the league. Can Dallas do that?

Dak’s injury clouds this projection. Schematic advantages are great, but in the end, players have to make plays. Dallas doesn’t have the receiving corps to consistently make plays against great secondaries.

That’s why heavier personnel groupings and higher play-action rates are important for the Cowboys’ offense, specifically. Getting base defensive personnel on the field is an advantage for Dallas. It condenses defenders and makes getting to the edges in coverage more difficult, especially when play-action is involved.

The Cowboys receivers need every advantage they can get, and having to maneuver around a minefield of defenders in coverage makes things even more difficult for the group. Isolating Gallup and Lamb on the outside is their best course of action.

In the end, only playoff success matters. Dallas’ offense could finish inside the top five of every efficiency metric in the game. They could win 13 games, and none of it would matter if they get spiked before the conference championship game comes around.

But it’s nice to see Moore rely less on Prescott being perfect against coverage. He’s making things easier on his quarterback, and it’s led to the best QB performance over the past two weeks (.507 EPA per play).