Dec 14, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) runs the ball during the second quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Carolina Panthers playoff chances revealed after another frustrating setback

Originally posted on Carolina Panthers on SI
By Zach Roberts | Last updated Dec 15, 2025 8:19 AM ET

The Carolina Panthers had it in the bag. They had a lead late in the fourth quarter, and a win would've made next week's home bout with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a clincher for the playoffs.

And now, the chances that Carolina is going to the postseason are so much slimmer. One five-minute stretch toward the end that resulted in a quick score by New Orleans, a failed game-winning drive by Carolina, and a game-winning field goal by the Saints turned this season on its head.

Had they won, the odds would have skyrocketed. Instead, Carolina once again faces an uphill battle of its own making. Here's what the percentages say.

Carolina Panthers' playoff odds crater after disappointing loss

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Whatever the odds say, they should be zero. The Panthers have an exceptionally difficult path to the playoffs, and nothing suggests they're capable of walking it.

The easiest path is to sweep the Buccaneers. The alternative is to split but win one more game than Tampa, but since the other game is the 11-3 Seattle Seahawks, that's not likely to happen.

And based on how this team has performed, there's nothing to suggest they'll sweep the Bucs, either. Losing out and finishing 7-10 is far more likely than a playoff run at this point.

Nevertheless, since it's mathematically possible, there is a chance. The Athletic gives the Panthers a 24% chance. It was 47% before the loss. NFL.com gives the Panthers a 23% chance. It's not looking good.

This is entirely their own doing, though. There is no excuse for losing two games to the 4-10 Saints, especially with a lead late after a bye week. They're more talented, healthier, and more rested than the Saints, and yet they were outclassed a second time.

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

There's also no excuse for some of the other losses they've endured. Yes, the Panthers have won games they had no business winning, but they've also lost too many games that they should've won. There's a very plausible reality where this team is at least 9-5 at this stage if not better.

Fortunately, it's literally right there in front of them, and the Panthers tend to play better when they've been counted out. And they're kind of counted out now.

This article first appeared on Carolina Panthers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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