Change at quarterback comes too late to save Falcons' season

Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is throwing stuff at a wall and seeing what sticks.

With nowhere else to go, the Falcons are returning to backup Taylor Heinicke as the team's starter, seemingly for the rest of the season, after Week 1 starter Desmond Ridder led the team in Atlanta's 9-7 loss to the Panthers.

The move is necessary, but it won't help the Falcons. Per the New York Times playoff predictor, the Falcons (6-8) have a seven percent chance of reaching the postseason.

In three previous appearances this season (including two starts), Heinicke was 41-of-74 (55.4 percent) for 498 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. His career interception rate (2.8 percent) is the same as Ridder's this season.

If there's a reason for optimism, it's that Atlanta averaged 24.7 points per game in Heinicke's three appearances compared to 16.7 points per game in the team's other 11 games. 

However, considering the move to Heinicke wasn't paired with a change in offensive playcalling, leaving that in the hands of Smith, chances are the move at quarterback is only wallpaper.

As bad as Ridder has been, Smith has been just as responsible for the team's shortcomings. His run-heavy approach has backfired this season despite the team ranking ninth in rushing yards. Atlanta is 21st in yards per carry, 26th in rush expected points added (EPA) and 27th in rush success rate, or the number of plays that result in a positive EPA.

NFL Next Gen Stats show that running backs Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson faced eight or more defenders in the box at among the highest rates in the league, indicating defenses can predict what Atlanta will do offensively and the Falcons are helpless to stop it.

Smith's hands are just as dirty as Ridder's. The more he tinkers with the offense, the bigger the mess he creates.