Yardbarker
x
Chargers Can Win AFC West, But Should They Want To?
Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Chargers Can Win AFC West, But Should They Want To?

Originally posted on The Lead  |  By Reagan Silbar  |  Last updated Dec 27, 2025 6:43 PM ET

After clinching a playoff berth for the second consecutive year under Jim Harbaugh, the Los Angeles Chargers are also aiming to win the AFC West for the first time since 2009.

The Chargers’ Week 16 win over the Cowboys, combined with the Colts’ loss to the 49ers, secured their playoff spot. Looking ahead, there is one scenario in which the Bolts can win the division.

In a year with the guaranteed absence of Patrick Mahomes and a somewhat unstable AFC landscape, this season could be L.A.’s best shot at postseason success in a very long time. 

Winning the Division

The Chargers control their own destiny as they head toward winning the AFC West. They had a chance to win in Week 17 if the Broncos had lost to the Chiefs in Arrowhead on Christmas Night. However, the Broncos won, making Week 17 crucial for the Bolts.

Now, to clinch the division, L.A. must win both remaining games against the Texans and Broncos. If the Chargers fail to beat the Texans, the Broncos will automatically secure the division. If they do beat the Texans, however, Week 18 will determine the division winner.

This is the closest the Bolts have come to this milestone in quite some time, and the various seeding implications are vital when evaluating how far L.A. can go in the postseason.

Defensive Guantlet

The Chargers might face the most difficult final two games of any team in the league. They will first play the Texans in L.A., which could scare any Chargers fan.

Houston not only dominated L.A. in the 2024 wild-card playoff game, but it is also currently ranked #1 in total and scoring defense. With the Texans’ four sacks and four interceptions vs. the Chargers in the playoffs, and the Chargers’ weak offensive line, the outlook looks grim for L.A.

The NFL media favored L.A. heavily before that playoff game, giving Houston plenty of motivation. They certainly took advantage of being the underdog. But this year’s game is in Los Angeles, not Houston. Also, both teams have top-10 defenses, and Houston is more banged up than L.A., according to recent injury reports.

It’s also important to note that, for this game, the Chargers have more receiving options than just Ladd McConkey. In the playoff loss, McConkey was the only Chargers receiver with over 16 yards. Rushing wasn’t much better; J.K. Dobbins, the top rusher, had only 26 yards.

With Omarion Hampton back, Keenan Allen, Tre Harris, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden, and Tyler Conklin give the Texans more difficult choices for stopping the Chargers and creating turnovers. Greg Roman’s offense has been less predictable this season, and hopefully that shows now. 

AFC West Battle

Assuming the Chargers beat the Texans, that leaves a Week 18 thriller against the Broncos in Denver.

While the Broncos currently hold the AFC #1 seed and have won 13 games, questions about their ferocity remain. Eleven of Denver’s 13 wins have been by one score. Additionally, nine of those wins were against teams currently within the top 10 in the 2026 draft.

Denver may be winning, but they aren’t convincingly dominating. Los Angeles, however, has one of the best records in the NFL against playoff teams at 3-1.

They also finished the season facing Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, and Denver. Could they have gone 0-5 in that stretch? Many thought it was possible, yet they’re currently 3-0, with two teams ahead of them struggling.

The Chargers also defeated the Broncos once this season, scoring 10 points in under 3 minutes to come back in Week 3. Bo Nix is 0-3 against the Chargers in his career and has looked mediocre against some of the NFL’s worst teams in recent weeks.

While not guaranteed, the Chargers may have a solid chance at winning the division. Houston and Denver both have weaknesses their defenses could exploit – the real question is whether the offense can keep up against two defenses that are currently carrying their teams. 

Should They Want to Win the Division?

However, it might not be a good thing to win the division.

Although the Chargers started the season strong with No. 1-seed hopes, the current seeding may not be beneficial for their success. As it stands, the Chargers would face the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs. L.A. has already convincingly beaten Pittsburgh once this season, and the Steelers are likely the weakest playoff team in the current projections.

If the Bolts win the division and become the 1, 2, or 3 seed, they would probably face Buffalo, Houston, or Denver again in the first round. Any of those matchups could be worse than just securing the five seed and letting Denver face a more formidable opponent in round one if the Patriots secure the No. 1 seed.

Justin Herbert is looking for his first playoff win—that’s the bottom line. As Chargers fans, our hope is simply that he achieves this, regardless of how he does it.

Winning the AFC West would be historic for the team. If they don’t, at least they have a less terrifying opponent waiting for them on the other side of the regular season.

This article first appeared on The Lead and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!