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Chargers' win probability for every 2025 game may shock you

Originally posted on Los Angeles Chargers on SI
By Andrew Parsaud | Last updated May 20, 2025 4:01 PM ET

The Los Angeles Chargers are looking to capitalize on the success they saw in the first year under Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh and company helped guide the Bolts to 11 wins and a Wild Card appearance, where they unfortunately lost to the Houston Texans.

The Chargers are now officially counting down the days until Week 1, as they'll be playing the rival Kansas City Chiefs in Brazil.

Mike Clay of ESPN shared win probability projections for every NFL team in 2025, with the Chargers favored in nine games. Here's every win probability for the Bolts this upcoming season:

Week 1 vs Kansas City Chiefs: 40%
Week 2 at Las Vegas Raiders: 60%
Week 3 vs Denver Broncos: 49%
Week 4 at New York Giants: 55%
Week 5 vs Washington Commanders: 51%
Week 6 at Miami Dolphins: 47%
Week 7 vs Indianapolis Colts: 58%
Week 8 vs Minnesota Vikings: 49%
Week 9 at Tennessee Titans: 62%
Week 10 vs Pittsburgh Steelers: 55%
Week 11 at Jacksonville Jaguars: 58%
Week 12: Bye
Week 13 vs Las Vegas Raiders: 68%
Week 14 vs Philadelphia Eagles: 39%
Week 15 at Kansas City Chiefs: 36%
Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys: 48%
Week 17 vs Houston Texans: 48%
Week 18 at Denver Broncos: 41%

So right off the bat, the Chargers aren't favored to win in four out of their first eight games, two of those being against the rival Chiefs and Denver Broncos. The Chargers' win total was set at 8.6 games according to these projections, which would of course be a step down from last season's output.

Numbers can only predict so much. It's time for the Chargers to go out and prove everyone wrong.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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