Chiefs attempting to achieve rare feat this century

Kansas City kicks off the 2023 season next Thursday night as the betting favorite to win consecutive NFL titles. If it does, it will be only the fourth team since at least 2000 to win the Super Bowl after being the preseason favorite.

The Colts (2006) and Patriots (2016, 2018) are the only two franchises to achieve the feat.

Kansas City was also the favorite entering the 2020 and 2021 seasons (+450 in both years) while it is +650 to win Super Bowl LVIII.

The Chiefs lost to the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV and to the Bengals in the 2021 AFC Championship Game.

Last season, the Chiefs entered the year with the third-best odds (+1020) before winning their second Super Bowl in four seasons. Buffalo (+600) was the preseason favorite.

While it hasn't typically paid off with a Super Bowl win, the betting favorite tends to be as good as advertised in the regular season. 

Since 2000, the favorite has a typical over-under win total of 11.32 and has averaged 11.52 wins, slightly more than expected.

The biggest whiffs on the betting market this century happened in the early to mid-2000s. The Rams (2002) had an over-under win total of 11 and finished 7-9. The Bucs joined them the following year with a 7-9 record after its over-under was set at 10.5. Worst of all was the 2005 Eagles, which entered the season +500 to win Super Bowl XL with an over-under of 11.5 wins but instead went 6-10.

Even if Kansas City doesn't repeat, it should still reach the playoffs, but what do previous preseason odds reveal about Super Bowl winners? 

Most aren't completely out of left field. The biggest long shots entering the season since 2000 were the Patriots (+6000 in 2003), Giants (+3000 in 2007) and Eagles (+4000 in 2017). Even in those cases, the Giants (15th) and Eagles (13th) ranked in the top half of the league in preseason odds. 

On average, Super Bowl winners have ranked 6.56 in preseason odds (roughly +1581) with an expected win total of 9.63 games.

For the 2023 season, those numbers suggest the Cowboys and Jets could be set for a collision course. Both are tied at sixth in preseason odds (+1600) and have over-under win totals set at 9.5. 

Considering how little recent postseason success those two teams have, however, it's fair to hesitate in backing either.  

While history suggests Kansas City won't live up to its status as the preseason favorite, it's much easier to have faith in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes than Dallas, New York or any other team for that matter.

The numbers might say one thing, but logic suggests something else.