Chiefs not expected to franchise-tag Pro Bowl guard

The Chiefs’ issues blocking a dialed-in Eagles pass rush in Super Bowl LIX figure to also work against them in free agency. Philadelphia’s dominant victory highlighted the importance of quality offensive linemen, and one of Kansas City’s three Pro Bowlers will be paid as such soon.

An expectation that the Chiefs would lose Trey Smith, their four-year right guard, in free agency emerged soon after the Eagles’ conquest, but the AFC champions could prevent this by unholstering the franchise tag. Guards are rarely tagged, as the CBA groups interior O-linemen and tackles together, and Kansas City is not expected to make an exception here. No Smith franchise or transition tag is expected, The Athletic’s Nate Taylor notes.

Although the 2025 salary cap has not yet produced a number, OverTheCap projects the O-line tag to surpass $25M. That would be a tough ask for a Chiefs team, although the luxury Patrick Mahomes‘ through-2031 contract has provided on the restructuring front is projected to come in less than $1M under the 2025 cap as of Wednesday. A $25M-plus cap hold for a Smith tag would greatly hinder the Chiefs from improving.

Because tackle salaries balloon the tag numbers for other O-linemen, guards regularly score big in free agency, and teams’ reluctance to protect them via the tag has seen only two players (Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney) be tagged at the position over the past 15 years. The Patriots’ 2020 Thuney tag proved a rental, as a 2021 Chiefs O-line overhaul soon included a then-record payment for the quality LG. One year remains on Thuney’s five-year, $80M contract.

Smith departing in free agency would create a right guard need, but the Chiefs already carry a deficiency at left tackle. The highest-profile O-line spot will require immediate attention, as the Chiefs will surely slide Thuney back to LG after he served as a patchwork solution for a team that has struggled to staff its LT post since not re-tagging Orlando Brown Jr. While Wanya Morris and Kingsley Suamataia remain under contract, neither should be expected to head into the offseason program as the Chiefs’ projected LT starter. Thus, that will likely require the addition of a free agency. Fortunately for the Chiefs, a few options — Ronnie Stanley, Cam Robinson and Alaric Jackson — could soon be available. Though, a notable left tackle addition may cost the Chiefs a proven interior blocker.

During his age-26 season, Smith should be viewed as likely to reset the guard market, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes. Eagles LG Landon Dickerson moved that bar to $21M per year in 2024, and this afternoon’s update on the salary cap — which is now set to land between $277.5M and $281.5M — will be welcome news for this year’s top free agents. Despite not accumulating Dickerson's accolades, Smith — who made his first Pro Bowl this past season — will benefit based on position and teams’ interest in securing a high-end blocker without an injury history. The former sixth-round pick has missed one career game.

After the Chiefs gave Creed Humphrey a record-shattering center extension, they still expressed interest in a Smith deal. The team carried that interest into the regular season, and as recently as the midseason point, the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs notes the expectation around the league was the Chiefs would find a way to keep Smith on a second contract. That sentiment has since shifted, pointing toward the Chiefs standing down and being resigned to losing the former Day 3 find.

Kansas City has three blockers (Humphrey, Thuney, Jawaan Taylor) signed to big-ticket contracts. While Taylor has been more problem than solution at right tackle, the penalty maven’s 2023 market produced a player-friendly deal that guaranteed his 2025 salary ($19.5M) in March 2024. The Chiefs may need to live with the disappointing free agent signing for one more season, as no cap relief would come via even a post-June 1st cut.

As the three-time reigning AFC champs determine a left tackle solution, their right guard is on the doorstep of a monumental payday. With the March 4 tag deadline not appearing to apply here, Kansas City has until March 10 to negotiate exclusively with Smith.