Chiefs Playoff Picture: Kansas City in a fight to make postseason as AFC West odds crumble with Week 11 loss to Broncos

The Kansas City Chiefs' chances at a 10th consecutive AFC West title are dismal after Week 11's 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos, and their playoff chances might be slipping away as well.

The Chiefs now sit at 5-5, going 1-2 in the division and 2-4 in the conference. They currently win the tiebreaker over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC conference standings based on head-to-head win percentage. However, after being the No. 8 seed and just outside the playoff picture, they've now dropped even further in the standings with the Houston Texans (5-5) owning a tiebreaker based on best win percentage in conference games.

Chiefs drop to No. 9 seed in AFC with Week 11 loss to Broncos

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs' chances of winning the AFC West have dropped to just 10% after their Week 11 loss to the Broncos. Most models give them a 57%-58% chance of making the playoffs entirely after dropping to 5-5 in Denver.

AFC Playoff Picture heading into NFL Week 12

1. Broncos (9-2) - AFC West
2. Colts (9-2) - AFC South
3. Patriots (9-2) - AFC East
4. Steelers (6-4) - AFC North
5. Bills (7-3) - WC
6. Chargers (7-4) - WC
7. Jaguars (6-4) - WC

The toughest thing for the Chiefs to overcome in all of this is the fact that the Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars each have wins over Kansas City. If they end up in a tie for a wild-card spot with any of those three teams, they'll hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Winning out the remaining seven games on the schedule would be preferable, but they'll have to go 6-1 at worst in the remaining seven regular-season games to have a shot at the playoffs. Even with that route, they'll still need teams like the Jaguars and Chargers to start losing some games. If K.C. does lose a game, the Thanksgiving game against the Cowboys would probably do the least harm, since they're in the NFC conference. Winning the remaining AFC conference games will be crucial for the team's chances down the stretch. The Chiefs, of course, have three more AFC West games and two games against AFC South opponents on deck.

Chiefs’ remaining 2025 NFL schedule

• Week 12: Colts
• Week 13: @ Cowboys
• Week 14: Texans
• Week 15: Chargers
• Week 16: @ Titans
• Week 17: Broncos
• Week 18: @ Raiders

The reality is that this loss does more harm to Kansas City's postseason chances than any other this season. As if it wasn't hard enough getting the best shot of every single team you face, now every game is a must-win situation for the Chiefs to keep their playoff hopes alive. If they miss the playoffs, it'll be the first time the team has missed the postseason since 2014. It'd also mark the first time missing the playoffs in the Patrick Mahomes era.

This story was originally reported by A to Z Sports on Nov 17, 2025, where it first appeared in the NFL section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.