Chiefs vs. Chargers: A Dangerous Third-Down Test Awaits

The Chargers’ Record Doesn’t Let The Chiefs Off The Hook

The Chargers lost to Denver, but pinning that loss entirely on their defense wouldn’t account for a lot of other factors.

In the first half, Los Angeles held Denver to 3.8 yards per play and one third-down conversion in six attempts.  The Broncos’ touchdown required only a 40-yard drive after a Chargers turnover.  The Los Angeles defense was already dealing with a short field.

Then the Chargers’ offense made things harder.  A failed fourth-down attempt left Denver needing just 41 yards for a touchdown that would tie the game.  Justin Herbert followed that with a lost fumble and an interception on consecutive possessions.  Denver turned both into field goals, completing a 13-point fourth quarter.

Should the defense have made more stops?  Obviously.  But it was the Chargers offense that kept handing Denver a head start.  Kansas City cannot and should not count on receiving the same favors Sunday.

The Chiefs Need To Finish What They Start

Kansas City’s third-down numbers are not a season-long disaster, thank goodness.  The Chiefs converted five of 13 against the Raiders, or 38.5%.  Across their first four games, they’ve converted 22 of 50, or 44%.

One uneven afternoon does not erase that.  It also does not make the finish against Las Vegas any less exasperating.

After recovering the onside kick with a three-point lead, the Chiefs had a chance to keep the ball and finish the job.  Instead, they punted it back and handed the defense another afternoon of unpaid overtime.

Earlier, Mahomes had needed a 55-yard completion to Tyquan Thornton on third down to keep a crucial scoring possession alive.

I’ll happily take that completion, but it’s so much safer and smarter to have a late possession that ends with Kansas City running out the clock. 

The Chargers already make third downs difficult enough.  Kansas City doesn’t need to help them out by wasting chances to keep a drive alive.

In Chiefs vs. Chargers, Shorter Gains Matter, Too

Kenneth Walker III enters Sunday with 537 rushing yards and a 6.2-yard average.  The Chargers have allowed 3.8 yards per carry.

They have faced different opponents, so those numbers do not tell us exactly how Sunday will go.  They do give us a matchup worth watching: how will Walker’s agility hold up against the Chargers’ defense?

Nobody is complaining about his 177-yard performance against Las Vegas.  We’re certainly not complaining about that whopping 76-yard run that helped set up a touchdown.  Can we reasonably expect him to keep breaking loose whenever the offense needs a new set of downs?

A four-yard carry leaves Mahomes with second-and-six.  That gives the offense more room to work than another second-and-10.  Those gains deserve attention even when they never make the highlight reel.

If the Chargers limit Walker early, Kansas City needs to find production through the air before third down arrives.  Continuing to run into the same problem and asking Mahomes to fix it afterward is asking for trouble.

Mahomes Needs Time, And Mack Isn’t The Only Concern

Khalil Mack leads the Chargers with three sacks, but he is not doing all the work.  Akheem Mesidor has 2.5, and Tuli Tuipulotu has two. Together, they account for 7.5 of Los Angeles’ 11 sacks.  Those are three big threats the Chiefs need to account for.

Kansas City has allowed six sacks through four games.  Six sacks do not tell us how often Mahomes has had to rush a throw or scramble out of trouble.  On Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Chargers matchup, can the protection hold long enough for him to find a receiver downfield?

He’s good at escaping trouble.  We know this.  It would be nice if that were not a requirement for keeping a drive alive.

End Of My Chiefs vs. Chargers Rant

Walker is producing, the third-down numbers are respectable, and Mahomes is still running the offense.  Plenty of reasons for confidence.  Unfortunately, the Chargers’ defense is unlikely to read that list and politely get out of the way.

In this Chiefs vs. Chargers game, I’ll be watching what happens between the highlights.  Can the offense keep their drives from stalling, or will Mahomes need the jumper cables again?