Chiefs vs. Packers: 5 Questions and NFL Week 13 Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs are back under the bright lights, this time taking the field at one of the most historic places in all of football.

Lambeau Field is the site of this week's matchup between Kansas City and the Green Bay Packers. The hosts, 5-6, are in need of another win to keep their momentum going and continue to fight for a wild-card spot in the NFC. The visitors, 8-3, have two losses coming from interconference outings rather than intraconference opponents. That's allowed them to keep control of their own destiny in the AFC, although a win on the Sunday Night Football stage is still necessary to keep pace.

What's important to know about Sunday's Chiefs vs. Packers matchup? How could the action unfold? Bill Huber of Packer Central was kind enough to answer five questions for me to cover all of that and more.

From the outside, it looks like the Packers have turned a corner in the last month. What's been the recipe for success?

BH: Here’s the simpleton answer: The quarterback has made leaps-and-bounds improvement. I think yards per attempt is a really good measuring stick for quarterbacking efficiency. From Game 2 through Game 7, 33 quarterbacks threw at least 125 passes. Love ranked 30th with 6.0 yards per attempt. From Game 8 through Game 11, 28 quarterbacks threw at least 30 passes. Love ranked seventh with 8.0 yards per attempt. A bit like what’s going on with the Chiefs, the Packers are rebuilding on the fly at receiver. They traded Davante Adams after the 2021 season and let Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb go after the 2022 season. That’s not just a lot of production but a lot of experience in the scheme and in how to attack defenses. 

The amount of youth surrounding Love is mind-blowing. The only receiver or tight end who’s not a rookie or second-year player is tight end Josiah Deguara, who’s really a fullback. The top five in receptions are second-year receiver Romeo Doubs, rookie receiver Jayden Reed, rookie tight end Luke Musgrave, second-year receiver Christian Watson and rookie receiver Dontayvion Wicks. So, Love is playing better and that group has grown alongside him. It’s exactly what GM Brian Gutekunst was hoping for. We’ll see if it lasts.

Evaluate Jordan Love's progress in his first full season as a starter.

BH: If you would have asked me this five weeks ago, I’d say the Packers might be looking to draft his replacement with their top-five pick in the 2024 draft. Love too often was unsure with his reads and inaccurate with his passes. He spent a good chunk of the first eight weeks of the season ranked last in the NFL in completion percentage. The last four games, however, have been a revelation. You could make an argument that he’s played the best game of his career each of the last four weeks. He was brilliant at Detroit on Thanksgiving. That’s a tough place to play now that the Lions are actually good, and he never flinched, never backed down, never looked flustered.

He’s chucking it deep less often but hitting on those deep passes more often. The ball is finding the checkdowns, so it’s been third-and-4 rather than third-and-10, which was the damnation of the offense at the start of the season. Like Mahomes, he’s not going to be run for 600 yards in a season but the movement skills are a definite asset. I’m not going to suggest Love is Aaron Rodgers 2.0 (or would that make him Brett Favre 3.0?). Hall of Fame jackets aren’t handed out because of strong four-game stretches. But if I had to bet my next paycheck, I’d say the Packers have their quarterback.

How do you expect Green Bay to attack Kansas City on both sides of the ball?

BH: Offensively, under the assumption that standout running back Aaron Jones isn’t going to play because of the knee injury sustained against the Chargers in Week 11, the attack is going to flow directly through Love. There will be a smattering of AJ Dillon to keep the Chiefs honest and the offense in manageable third-down situations, but the only hope for success is Love attacking, the offensive line protecting and the receivers winning.

Defensively, the Packers have faced only two teams ranked in the top 12 in scoring. Certainly, they haven’t faced anyone like Mahomes or Travis Kelce. Their run defense is usually somewhere between mediocre and terrible. So, I don’t know what to make of the Packers ranking 10th in points allowed. In that light, I’d assume a rather conservative plan of trying to stop Isaiah Pacheco and forcing Mahomes and his young receivers to march 12 plays to get in the end zone.

What's an under-the-radar matchup that could be the key to Sunday's game?

BH: For Green Bay, Jayden Reed takes most of the slot reps. For a rookie, the Packers have put a lot of eggs in his basket the last several games. Among rookie receivers, he’s eighth in receptions, seventh in yards and tied for third with Rashee Rice in touchdowns. He is really good. Trent McDuffie is one of the better slot corners in the NFL. So, that’ll be a big-time matchup. I could see the winner of this matchup being the key reason why his team wins the game.

How do you see this game unfolding and who ends up winning?

BH: I’m prone to exaggeration to make a point but there’s no exaggeration here. I’d never pick against Mahomes. Any opponent, any field, I’m taking Mahomes. So, no different here. I think the Chiefs will win. Kansas City’s defense is so good, and if it’s a close game entering the fourth quarter, it’s hard to bet against Mahomes’s talent and experience. The line at SI Sportsbook is Chiefs by 6.5 with an over/under of 41.5. I’d be broke if I were a gambler but I’d take the Packers to cover and the under.

For the Packers, games like this are enormously important. The point of this entire season has been to build with the young quarterback and all those young targets. This will be a playoff-type atmosphere. The challenge will be invaluable.

For additional coverage of the Packers, be sure to follow Bill's work on X @BillHuberNFL and check out Packer Central for more in-depth Packers content.