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Chris Grier’s History Sheds Light on What is Coming

Originally posted on Dolphins Talk | By Mike Oliva | Last updated 3/1/24

“The best Indicator of Future Behavior is past Behavior.”

That saying carries a lot of weight because it is very accurate in many walks of life, not just football. Being a fan of and following the Miami Dolphins for over 40 years and watching Chris Grier’s career advance over the past 20+ years, it is clear to me that Grier is somewhat easy to predict at this point.

While he may hold his cards close to his vest, you have a firm idea of his likes and dislikes after all of these years, and predicting his next moves really aren’t that difficult.

So, let me lay out some of Grier’s likes and dislikes below to help everyone understand how the next couple of months will play out.

CHRIS GRIER DISLIKE

Investing big money in free agent offensive lineman. Since Chris Grier has been in total control who was the big money free agent offensive lineman he brought in? I know some of you are saying Terron Armstead (more on that in a minute) and while yes he is big money, he falls into another category coming up next.

Connor Williams was signed to a fair deal, far from big money. Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, and Isiah Wynn fall in the same category; all guys who came in on for the most part what you would not call a big money deal.

Grier doesn’t invest big money into the offensive line via free agency.

CHRIS GRIER LIKE

Grier likes players with a few red flags that he can get at a discount. This is that Terron Armstead call back from above. Armstead was one of the best left tackles when he was on the free agent market, but many teams didn’t want to invest big money into him. Aas Armstead’s missed nine games his final season in New Orleans and at least six games in four of the six seasons before that. His market wasn’t what someone of his caliber would be who didn’t have those red flags and that injury history.

We have seen those ever famous and such a fan-favorite “low risk-high reward” type signings/trades with Grier. Signing Robbie Chosen Anderson, the Chase Claypool trade, trading for Isaiah Wilson, giving Mark Walton many chances. Isaiah Wynn was a first round bust in New England who was always injured and played very poorly for the Patriots, Grier rolled the dice on him and gave him a one year deal as he saw it as value.

I would guess when Chris Grier goes shopping for clothes; he asks if they have any Irregular clothes for sale cause he loves trying to make something broken work at a discount.

CHRIS GRIER LIKE LOVE

Grier loves drafting the five premium positions in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. What are the five premium positions, you ask? They are quarterback, cornerback, edge rusher, offensive tackle, and wide receiver.

Let’s look at recent years.

2020 NFL Draft: Tua Tagovailoa (QB), Austin Jackson (OT), Noah Igbinoghene (CB), Robert Hunt (OT (was drafted to be the right tackle of the future before being moved to guard)), Raekwon Davis (out of five picks in the first two rounds the only non-premium position player but again it was his 5th pick)

2021 NFL Draft: Jaylen Waddle (WR), Jaelan Phillips (Edge), Jevon Holland (S), Liam Eichenberg (OT(again, like Hunt, Eichenberg was drafted to be the right tackle of the future but failed at that spot before being moved). The only non-position player here was Holland, who fell in their lap. And again when your ninth pick the past two seasons in the first two rounds, you can waste a pick on a non premium position to just have some fun.

2022 NFL Draft: Miami had no picks in Rounds 1 or 2

2023 NFL Draft: Cam Smith (CB)

So, if you think in 2024 when Miami has pick #21 in the Draft, that Chris Grier won’t take a wide receiver, offensive tackle, edge rusher, or cornerback (we know they aren’t drafting a quarterback) you may be nuts.

Grier’s history is right there, and he loves to invest in the early rounds in those spots, especially in round 1 as it makes a ton of sense. After all, you get that 5th-year option on a premium position player, which in the world of the NFL Salary cap is huge because those are also the positions of players who make the most money on all teams.

CHRIS GRIER DISLIKE

Investing money or draft picks in special teams. Outside of Jason Sanders who has a healthy contract Miami always goes cheap on punter, punt returner, kickoff returner and any special teams specialists.

Danny Crossman may not be great at his job, but he doesn’t have great tools to work with on special teams.

CHRIS GRIER LIKE

Making at least one big “splash” trade or signing every offseason. Whether its trading for Tyreek Hill, or trading for Jalen Ramsey, or a trade deadline deal for Bradley Chubb, Chris Grier loves to make that big move for a big name player.

So even with the Dolphins in a little bit of a salary cap bind at the moment, don’t think Grier won’t look to add a big name player of some sort either via trade or free agency.

2024 OFFSEASON

As we are about to embark on the meat and potatoes of this offseason, with Free Agency starting in a little over a week and then the draft not far behind that, trying to predict or guess what Chris Grier will do really shouldn’t be difficult.