Christian McCaffrey & Kaelon Black Fantasy Football Takeaway (Week 1)

Christian McCaffrey has been one of the most dominant players in fantasy football for years, but he’s also quite risky. Obviously, everyone knows about the injury, and McCaffrey has had three seasons where he’s played in fewer than eight games, but now that compounds with concerns around his age. 

Right now, McCaffrey is 30 years old, which is really up there for a running back. On top of that, the San Francisco 49ers just drafted a running back with decent draft capital this year.

Kaelon Black was selected by the 49ers with the 90th overall pick, giving him day two draft capital. At running back, draft capital really matters, but it is worth noting that many didn’t view Black this highly. 

According to the Underdog mock draft website, Black didn’t even show up in the top six running backs, which included Nick Singleton with an ADP of 129.5.

Regardless, the 49ers clearly believe in Black, and with the questions surrounding McCaffrey heading into the year, this is what we learn from Week 1.

Christian McCaffrey & Kaelon Black Week 1 Snap Counts

In this tweet from Underdog NFL, citing SūmerSports, they outlined a number of snap data points between the two.

The first thing that stuck out to me was that McCaffrey really didn’t play that many more snaps than Black, at 35 compared to 28. It is worth noting that the 49ers would end up winning this game 27-7, so there was no real need to push McCaffrey.

As a receiver, that’s where McCaffrey would dominate with 22 routes and 10 third snaps on third down, compared to Black, who had 13 routes with two snaps on third down.

McCaffrey also notably had eight targets and five catches (per PFF), whereas Black only had one target for one catch and five yards. In terms of overall carries, McCaffrey had fewer carries than Black at 10 versus 14. But with McCaffrey having three more rushing yards, that’s not something I’m worried about because of the game script.

The only area where I’m a bit concerned is that Black took two snaps inside of the 10-yard line, where McCaffrey had four. It’s clear that McCaffrey is not going to necessarily get every red zone touch, which is slightly concerning.

You shouldn’t be in full-blown panic mode because McCaffrey had just 13.8 fantasy points and had fewer rushing attempts than Black, but the red zone usage is something to keep an eye on.