Cincinnati Bengals 2026 Schedule One of NFL's Easiest by Projected Betting Win Totals

Sharp broke down the methodology on Monday.

"Projected win totals incorporate current information about team strength, including offseason acquisitions, injuries, and coaching changes," Sharp wrote. "These projections are crafted by sportsbooks aiming to predict future performance, making them more reflective of a team's current capabilities. While no SOS metric is perfect, using Vegas win totals provides a better indication of what teams could look like in the upcoming season than relying on the previous year's wins.

"We know that certain teams will benefit from luck factors in games next season, such as fumble recoveries, opponent field goal misses, tipped passes that result in interceptions, and red zone variance. But with current projected win totals, the pure luck factors that decide games are not incorporated. Think of it as if they are ignored or are evenly distributed across all 32 teams. But looking at last year’s records, that is not the case. There is not an even distribution of these luck factors, and as a result, prior-year records are skewed due to luck. Thus, incorporating those wonky results into future calculations leads to a higher error rate. Ignoring luck (or distributing it equally among all 32 teams) will increase schedule projection accuracy."

There are zero excuses for the Bengals not to win double-digit games and return to the playoffs for the first time in multiple seasons. Major injuries can always happen (especially to Joe Burrow), but their AFC North third-place schedule, major roster additions, and fully retained coaching staff should drive them to the postseason.

Check out the full look at all 32 schedules below:

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