Cincinnati Bengals Rookie Key to Finally Protecting Joe Burrow

Hope springs eternal in the offseason, which can lead to some inflated expectations. But what are some realistic expectations for the Bengals in 2025? This series will look at various key Bengals and what fans should expect production-wise this season.

If you missed the first installment of the series, you can read about Jermaine Burton here.

Perhaps the player with the most pressure on him (no pun intended) is rookie offensive guard Dylan Fairchild. What are fair expectations for the first year linemen tasked with fortifying the middle of the Bengals offensive line?

Mid-Round IOL Parameters

While there is LOTS of nuance when evaluating linemen, such as scheme, supporting cast, etc., for the sake of simplicity, I am looking solely at Pro Football Focus Grades. Before you roll your eyes, the grades will be used to tell a story and help set expectations, rather than serve as a definitive indictment on Fairchild’s ability.

First, let’s set the parameters for our search. We are going to focus on interior offensive linemen only, as the expectations and responsibilities of a tackle can differ. Secondly, we will evaluate only those interior linemen that were drafted in the third and fourth rounds of the NFL Draft. While we know there are players that drop lower than expected and those selected earlier than consensus, the narrowing of the pool helps in shrinking the presumed gap in talent level between players taken in the early first round compared to those taken multiple rounds later.

So what story does the data tell us? Since 2021, there have been 17 interior offensive linemen drafted in the third or fourth rounds. Of those, 10 started at least 10 games as a rookie. The average PFF Pass Blocking Grade for those mid-round linemen was 51.1, with an average rookie season Run Blocking Grade of 59.8. On average, those linemen allowed 33 pressures in their first season.

Is Fairchild the Answer?

While the average PFF grades for the mid-round rookie linemen haven’t been spectacular, the bar is rather low for improvement in Cincinnati. Last year’s starters, Cordell Volson and Alex Cappa, had PFF Pass Block Grades of 49.4 and 39.7, allowing 43 and 51 pressures, respectively. Of the 10 qualified iOL rookies since 2021, only two have scored a PFF PBLK grade lower than 40, and two have allowed 40+ pressures. If Fairchild were to produce an ‘average’ rookie season like what we have seen from similar picks of late, Joe Burrow and Bengals fans alike would have to be thrilled with those results. 

It's realistic for Fairchild to be a significant upgrade, even if he isn't an above average NFL starter in his rookie campaign.