CJ Stroud’s Regression Makes 0 Sense

Stroud was drafted second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans. The team, the year prior, had just won three games and was in disarray. They fired former coach Lovie Smith and soon realized Davis Mills was not fit to be a starter.

Here came Stroud, a quarterback from Ohio State University. His pre-draft analysis stated that he had elite accuracy and good pocket presence. There were some concerns about his arm strength, but he showcased good intangibles in his collegiate career.

Houston lost their first two games in 2023. Stroud looked like a typical rookie, and it looked like it was going to be a rebuild year. Things took a turn when the team won the next five of their seven games.

The Texans improved to 5-4 and beat quality teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals. The story game after game was Stroud and his late-game heroics. Everyone remembers his incredible game-winning drive against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in a 39-37 shootout.

The former Buckeye outplayed Joe Burrow the very next week. All of a sudden, the NFL world was getting to see how legit this kid was. Stroud was able to do all this without a stacked roster around him.

Houston finished the season 10-7 and clinched a playoff birth for the first time since 2019. In his first playoff game, Stroud threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers on 16/21 passing. The season ended in Baltimore in the divisional round, but it was a successful season.

The first-year quarterback finished with 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Stroud took the league by storm, and many believed he had top-five potential.

The Moment

Stroud’s first two games in 2024 picked up right where they left off in 2023. He threw for 250+ yards each and had a total of three touchdowns with no turnovers. Since game two in year two, he has not been even close to his rookie year counterpart.

From week three onwards, Stroud has 37 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in 32 games. In his first 19 games, he had 26 touchdowns to just three interceptions. The difference is eye-popping.

Aside from the stats, the eye test confirms Stroud’s decline. When watching Houston play, he plays the role of game manager more often than not. That style, however, has not hurt the team as a whole because the defense is monstrous.

The Texans’ defense was a very good group in 2024. They ranked first in points per game and second in yards allowed. This year, they are once again first in points per game, and everyone saw them single-handedly win a playoff game in Pittsburgh.

As Stroud declined, the defense improved. Houston, as a result, remained a contender all three years of his career so far. The title of this section says “The Moment,” so what am I talking about?

It’s a moment that a lot of people have pointed to as the fork in the road moment. After the Texans beat the Chicago Bears in week two of the 2024 season, it was shown that Stroud was advising Caleb Williams on being a successful NFL quarterback.

The act was kind-hearted; however, many people did not take a liking to it. A lot of pundits, such as First Things First co-host Nick Wright, believed that Stroud was way over in his head, advising a player who was just drafted a year after him. Wright believed that the H-Town signal caller came off as a bit arrogant, as he was only one year into the league.

I personally didn’t think so, as I thought Stroud was giving solid advice as a fellow peer. The numbers, though, do not lie, and is it possible that maybe Stroud claimed his own arrival a bit prematurely?

End Of My CJ Stroud Rant

Stroud’s perfromance in Pittsburgh, a few days ago, was alarming. He threw for an interception and put the ball on the ground five other times. It’s a testament to how good that defense is for ending the game 30-6.

If Houston doesn’t advance to the Super Bowl this year, it will be because of the third-year signal-caller. That defense is championship caliber, and they have a real shot to win it all if Stroud picks it up.

Will the 2023 Rookie of the Year snap out of his funk?