C.J. Stroud's regression puts Texans in tough spot

At the end of the 2023 season, the Houston Texans looked like a team in an ideal situation. They had a young quarterback, C.J. Stroud, coming off a monster rookie season and had just won a playoff game, exceeding all preseason expectations and raising the bar for what would be expected in future seasons.

But two years later, they have yet to take the next step. In some ways, they seem to have regressed. That is especially true with the young quarterback. 

When it comes to his regular-season performances, Stroud has regressed the past two seasons and not yet recaptured the magic he had from his rookie season. Perhaps even more concerning is the way he played in Houston's two playoff games this year, turning the ball over seven times in two games. The Texans were able to overcome that in the wild-card round, but it did not go as well in the divisional round Sunday against the New England Patriots.

Now, it has them in a tough spot regarding Stroud's future, and he could be entering a potential make-or-break season in Houston in 2026.

Texans still have to figure out what they have in C.J. Stroud

The issue for the Texans isn't necessarily Stroud's ability or production, or even these past two playoff games.

He is not as bad as he played in these games. He has three years of film and data to show that. Even though his play has stagnated, and perhaps even regressed, he is still a good NFL quarterback. Is he great? No. Is he one of the elites at the position? No. There are teams with objectively better quarterbacks than him. 

But there are also teams — and a lot of them — with significantly worse quarterbacks. 

Too much of the narrative around quarterbacks in the NFL right now is centered around quarterbacks either being elite or totally incompetent. There is a significant range of players in between those two tiers. Stroud is in that range.

The problem is there is not much of a range in terms of compensation on contracts. 

While there is a middle class of NFL quarterbacks in terms of play, there is no real middle class in terms of financial compensation or salary-cap commitments. Everybody at the position gets paid if they are even competent as a starter, and that is what gets a lot of teams in trouble.

When you start getting into a situation where you are paying players like Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray or Tua Tagovailoa the same amount of money that Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are getting paid (or at least in the same ballpark), you are going to limit how you can build the rest of your team. Sometimes investing in the wrong quarterback is worse and more damaging than having no quarterback. 

That is the concern the Texans have to start considering when it comes to Stroud. 

Is he going to take the next step, get closer to the elite tier and get the Texans closer to the Super Bowl? Or is he simply a good but not quite great quarterback? 

The Texans could do him some favors by surrounding him with a better offensive line, running back and wide receivers. But Stroud also has to do more. That is what will make next season so important for him and the Texans as they decide whether or not to invest in him with a long-term contract extension.