Colts' Daniel Jones, Michael Pittman Jr. Lead Fantasy Surge

Jones has the 5th-most rushing TDs by any active QB since 2022. Per PFF, Jones was the 26th-ranked QB and 228th overall fantasy football prospect with an average draft position of 170. Let’s get this straight: the 228th-ranked player scored the 5th-most points in the entire league through Sunday.

That’s incredible value. If he’s on your waiver wire, fix that. If you’re lucky enough to already have him on your bench, look into starting him. Only 1.3% of ESPN Fantasy Football managers started him this week, and only 4.9% even had him on their roster.

Now, Monday morning Week 1 reactions are some of the most impulsive opinions in football
media all year, so we need to take a step back and look at the Miami defense that he took
advantage of. In the 2024 season, they were the 7th-best pass defense in terms of rating, where
opposing QBs averaged an 88.7 passer rating.

In comparison, Jones achieved a passer rating of 115.9 against Miami in Week 1. They also allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt (6.7) in the league, while Jones averaged 9.4 on Sunday. That said, with Miami’s defense losing a couple of key pieces in the 2024 offseason, Week 2 against Denver’s elite defense will be the real measuring stick.

This is a Broncos defense that made all of the right moves in the offseason, including the
acquisition of Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. They have football’s best corner in Patrick
Surtain II and finished the 2024 season with the third-best scoring defense, allowing 18.3 points
per game, while leading the league in sacks.

They also led the league in defensive Expected Points Added (EPA), a metric measuring a defense’s ability to limit scoring opportunities. In Week 1 of the 2025 season, they held the Rookie Titans QB Cam Ward to 2.48 total fantasy points with 112 passing yards on a 42% completion percentage. That score puts him among the lowest Week 1 totals ever recorded for a starting QB.

This Denver defense is going to offer a different challenge for Jones, and he’s going to
have to be surgical to tear apart this defensive backfield. Let’s look at a couple of weapons he
targeted in Week 1 and what their fantasy output looked like.

The Colts’ second-highest fantasy output came from veteran WR Michael Pittman Jr. He totaled
20.0 fantasy points from six receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. That 20.0 score is 8 points
higher than his projection of 12.0, and gives him the 8th-most fantasy points among Week 1
receivers through Sunday.

This is telling, because before Week 1, Pittman was ranked as the 46th-best fantasy receiver in the league per PFF. An absolute abomination of a rating — but value nonetheless. He was started by only 9.8% of managers in Week 1, and with the first-team All-Pro defensive back Patrick Surtain waiting for him in Week 2, I suggest you continue the trend — sit Pittman. But come Week 3, give him a look against the bottom-ranked Tennessee defense.

Another clear fantasy weapon in Indianapolis this week was the rookie TE Tyler Warren. He scored
the 3rd-most fantasy points among tight ends through Sunday with 14.9 points and 76 yards on
seven receptions.

Sure, this might not surprise some, but he had an average draft position of 101.2 and was only started in 52.2% of leagues. If you have him on the bench, even though Indy has a tough matchup next week, give him a start — this rookie is showing veteran tendencies early.

Our final fantasy weapon in Indianapolis is surely the most underrated coming into this season:
Spencer Shrader, Colts’ starting kicker. Shrader, who grew up just minutes away from Grand
Park in Westfield, Indiana — where the Colts host training camp — led all kickers in fantasy
points this Sunday with 16.0.

He was 3/3 on extra points and 4/4 on field goals with a long of 48. Shrader was perfect this Sunday, and it’s not something many saw coming. Only 1% of fantasy teams had Shrader starting, and only 1.5% even had him rostered. My advice: after Monday Night Football, go in and pick up Shrader before your league mates beat you to it.

Due to sheer volume, availability, and play calling, these fantasy prospects are worth putting into
your lineup. With predictable, consistent targets every week for Jones to attack, this machine
works.

Yes, it’s only Week 1, but one thing is important: Jones showed serious competence. He showed that he can get the ball to these weapons and use his legs to put up the kind of volume that wins you PPR matchups.

The Miami game gave us plenty of reasons for optimism, but Denver’s defense will separate the
Colts’ real fantasy assets from the one-week wonders.

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