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Sep 7, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen during the second half against the Miami Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium. Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Colts' Playoff Odds Nearly Double After Season-Opening Win

Originally posted on Indianapolis Colts on SI
By Sean Ackerman | Last updated Sep 10, 2025 7:00 AM ET

12 years ago, on September 8th, 2013, the Indianapolis Colts and second-year quarterback Andrew Luck beat the Oakland Raiders by a score of 21-17. Fast-forward 12 years, and the Colts are 1-0 for the first time since the Obama administration, thanks to Daniel Jones.

Jones was a 16-year-old unranked recruit at Charlotte Latin School in Charlotte, North Carolina, the last time the Colts had won a season opener. After walking on at Duke University and becoming the sixth-overall draft pick in 2019, Jones has ended up in Indianapolis working alongside head coach Shane Steichen.

Despite joining the team just six months ago, Jones looked surprisingly comfortable in the pocket. As Steichen put it, "he played good ball".

That "good ball" was enough to nearly double the Colts' playoff chances, according to ESPN Insights. Before the game, the Colts had just a 34% chance of making the postseason. Now, after a Week 1 victory (and two AFC South opponents losing), those odds have skyrocketed to 60%.

The team that improved their playoff chances the most in Week 1?

THE COLTS pic.twitter.com/9qZt1W5ket
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) September 9, 2025

Not only was beating an AFC opponent valuable, but it has put the Colts in a prime position to inch closer to playoff football, something that Indianapolis hasn't achieved since 2020. At the time, the Colts were one year separated from Luck's sudden retirement and chose veteran Philip Rivers to bridge the gap for a season, but fell short in the Wild Card round to the Buffalo Bills.

A couple of divisional losses gave the Colts a near-perfect start to the season.

The Houston Texans, who were largely considered AFC South favorites in the preseason, lost to the Los Angeles Rams on the road in an underwhelming offensive performance. Houston settled for three field goals and scored zero touchdowns, showing weakness in the first game of the season.

Mimicking the Texans, the Tennessee Titans lost a road battle against the Denver Broncos with zero touchdowns scored. The Titans' defense forced four turnovers and certainly outperformed expectations against a strong Denver team, but that wasn't enough to get in the win column.

First time being 1-0 in over a decade pic.twitter.com/YMTcC5PIhU
— John (@colts_report) September 7, 2025

The Jacksonville Jaguars secured a victory against the Carolina Panthers, putting them just behind the Colts in the division standings. The two won't play until December, so they each control their own destiny until then.

It does seem dramatic for playoff odds to change so drastically in one week of football, especially since the NFL is so unpredictable. At the end of the day, the only thing the Colts can control is the next game. Stacking early wins is something this team notoriously fails to do, but they have a chance to flip the script in 2025.

The Colts will face the Broncos in Week 2, who already took down an AFC South foe. The Broncos dominated Indianapolis last season in a mistake-filled game that included Jonathan Taylor's drop at the goal line and a trick play-gone-wrong with AD Mitchell throwing a backwards ball that was returned to the house by defensive end Nik Bonitto. Indy will probably keep the game plan much simpler the second time around.

Colts vs. Broncos will kick off at 4:05 p.m. on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

This article first appeared on Indianapolis Colts on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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